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Monday, May 14, 2012

Alienated voters may divert Serbia from West-friendly rule

BELGRADE, Serbia – Serbs who have lived through years of high unemployment and cronyism were threatening Sunday to throw out a pro-Western government for former allies of strongman Slobodan Milosevic.

A man casts his ballot at a polling station during the Serb elections in Gracanica, Kosovo. By Visar Kryeziu, AP

A man casts his ballot at a polling station during the Serb elections in Gracanica, Kosovo.

By Visar Kryeziu, AP

A man casts his ballot at a polling station during the Serb elections in Gracanica, Kosovo.

The deceased Milosevic unleashed horrific violence against ethnic groups in the 1990s, and it took a U.S.-led bombing campaign to end it. Polls indicate that many Serbs will vote for anyone who can offer a more stable and prosperous living than what they have experienced under the ruling Serbian Democratic Party. Others do not like their choices.

"My disgust at what we are choosing between: the insatiable greed and corruption of the Democratic Party which has systematically dismantled the rule of law in Serbia vs. rebranded nationalists from Milosevic's era," said Belgrade filmmaker Mila Turajlic, who says she is one of many who plan to spoil their ballots in protest of a lack of choice.

The election could determine whether Serbia continues to maintain peaceful relations with the other former provinces of the disintegrated Yugoslavia that declared independence following the end of the Cold War.

During the conflicts that followed independence, Milosevic deployed paramilitaries against Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo in assaults that killed more than 120,000 people. Milosevic's campaign against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, deemed ethnic cleansing by the United States, prompted a NATO air campaign in 1999 that ended the killings and led to Kosovo's independence.

Tomislav Nikolic, the Serbian Progressive Party candidate, was once closely allied to Milosevic, who was charged by the United Nations with war crimes and crimes against humanity but died in detention in 2006.

Nikolic is a former vice president of the far-right Serbian Radical Party but has toned down his rhetoric about Serbia's neighbors and is running against what he says is a corrupt and ineffective government.

"I don't think about the past, I think about the future," Nikolic, 60, said in a recent interview. "I know somebody must change this bad situation in Serbia.

"I know the suffering of my people, without jobs and a future, without anything," he said.

President Boris Tadic of the Serbian Democratic Party has been in power eight years and presided over a redistribution of former state-controlled industries that his opponents say has favored his political supporters. The European Commission has reported that a large percentage of Serbs say they have to pay bribes for government licenses and permits as well as medical care.

Serbian industries, especially its textile sector, have fallen apart. Unemployment is at 22%, which may explain why polling stations saw their highest voter turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections since 2000, when pro-democracy forces ousted Milosevic from power.

Tadic has played up his rival's past to convince the electorate that a Nikolic victory would have Serbia dragged back to the conflicts of the 1990s, leaving the country isolated from the West. Tadic succeeded in making Serbia a candidate for membership in the European Union in 2011.

"I expect that Serbia will continue on its reform path," said Tadic, 54, a former psychology professor. "Better life, better living standards for ordinary people is our strategic goal."

Ljubimir Gavrilovic, a 72-year-old retired auto mechanic, said Tadic has represented a break with Serbia's violent past and he appreciates his move toward the West.

"Tadic is the best man," he said.

Sasha Mimic, 50, said he was also worried about supporting the nationalists despite the poor economy under the Serbian Democratic Party.

"I like democracy, and this will bring a better life for my children," he said. "I'm afraid of what would happen to this country (if the nationalists regain power). I don't want my kids to go through that."

In Belgrade, trendy shopping lanes, modern cafes and tourist boutiques are popping up among decrepit communist-era buildings. But there are few job opportunities for the young.

The European Stability Initiative, a think tank, said in a report in April that the Serbian textile and clothing industry has shrunk by 75% in 20 years' time. Critics such as Tadic say privatization of industries needs to be more open to public scrutiny.

"All our lives (we) have been living in an environment contaminated by strong nationalism and a bad economical situation," said Dejan Alempijevic, a recent college graduate in Belgrade.

While many complain about their electoral choices, Filip Ejdus, of the independent think tank the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, says that the election marks a turning point in Serbian politics.

"We don't have nasty nationalists on one side and pro-Europeans who are looking for a brighter future on the other," he said. "These are the first elections where most of the parties agree."

Serbia officially considers the breakaway region of Kosovo a part of Serbia still, an issue that nationalists have always had at the top of their platform. But it has not been a significant campaign issue.

"I think the Kosovo issue can basically show you how Nikolic changed," said Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist at the University of Belgrade. "Nikolic chose not to radicalize this issue. He deliberately chose to portray himself as a moderate."

But Spasojevic doubts the nationalist agenda has receded.

"I think that maybe the party elite can change a little bit, but their constituency is more or less very similar to the Radical Party, or at least half of the former Radicals who are now supporting them," he says.

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