Tight Mont. Senate race may ripple nationwide

BUTTE, Mont. — BUTTE, Mont. Facing a competitive re-election battle for his U.S. Senate seat, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester returned for a recent weekend trip home and did what comes naturally: He rode a tractor.

The first-term senator and organic farmer spent a rainy Saturday afternoon atop a vintage John Deere tractor adorned with his campaign slogan, "Montana Farmer, Montana Values," in a St. Patrick's Day parade here. Unknown to Tester, the Republican trying to defeat him, Rep. Dennis Rehberg, trailed several blocks behind, waving to voters in an appearance that caught some Tester supporters by surprise in this union-friendly, Democratic town.

Over the course of the next seven months, Tester and Rehberg will continue to shadow each other as they travel the same turf in a fight that holds national consequences. Tester, Rehberg and independent analysts agree that Montana might dictate which party controls the Senate next year, and thus has greater leverage in pending battles over sweeping debates ranging from the expiring Bush tax cuts to President Barack Obama's health-care law.

Montanans realize the implications.

"The majority is absolutely a factor," said Ted Kronebusch, a 60-year-old electrician from Pondera and a Rehberg supporter. "This is why it is one of the most critical races in the United States."

Democrats are facing an uphill battle to hold on to their 53-seat majority, which includes two independent senators who caucus with Democrats. Of the 33 Senate races this year, 23 are held by Democrats and just 10 are held by Republicans.

About a dozen races are considered competitive, where both parties are engaged. Democrats are defending nine seats they control, while Republicans are defending just three: Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada, and the Maine seat held by retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe.

Republicans will need either a net gain of four seats to win the majority outright, or three seats and control of the White House to tilt a 50-50 Senate to their control. (When the Senate is evenly split, the vice president is the tiebreaker.) If Obama wins re-election, Democrats can lose no more than three seats to hold on to the chamber.

"There is no path to a majority without North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana," Rehberg told USA Today in an interview before a speech at a Lincoln Day dinner in Pondera, a conservative small town where he enjoys a strong base of support. "I think the Democrats know that. I clearly know it. I feel the pressure," he said.

Montana has been close from the start and is expected to remain so right up to the Nov. 6 vote. A March 14-16 poll conducted by the Billings Gazette gave Tester a lead of 46 percent to 45 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Both Tester and Rehberg have won statewide races and are well-known. That means the contest will turn on which side can best get out its vote and appeal to the small slice of swing voters -- a formula that will be replayed in races across the nation, including the presidential contest. When races run so tight, it puts a greater focus on personality and a candidate's ability to relate to people.

"People tend to like both of them, which is why this going to be so personal," said David Parker, a Montana State University professor who is writing a book, "Battle for the Big Sky," on the race. "A key to victory is going to be turning out the base by riling them up, which means: negative, negative, negative, attack, attack, attack."

For Republicans, the Democratic-held seats in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota are widely viewed as must-wins if the party stands a chance at taking control of the chamber. Democrats are confident they will pick up at least one of the GOP-held seats, which leaves Republicans hoping to pick off a seat in New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia or Wisconsin.

Within the 2012 battleground, election experts broadly agree that four contests are expected to be exceptionally close: Montana, Massachusetts, Nevada and Virginia.

"Every one of these races will end in the margin of error unless something unexpected happens between now and November," said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate election expert for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Based on the state's political climate, Maine is the ripest target for a Democratic pickup. The leading contender there, former governor Angus King, an independent, has not expressly stated which party he would side with, but his record is more in line with the Democratic Party.

Democrats are also hotly contesting GOP-held seats in Massachusetts and Nevada.

Though the Senate contests in Democratic-held Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida don't look good for Republicans today, the races are expected to tighten with the influence of the presidential election.

Likewise, races in Nebraska and North Dakota would appear to be ripe for the GOP, but Democrats are not conceding them, believing they have candidates who can win despite the strong conservative leanings in both states.

Duffy sees a wide open contest in Big Sky Country and beyond.

"The Senate is a jump ball," she said.

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