Rival out, path clear for Carmona in Dem race

Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona is looking at a straight shot at the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate thanks to the withdrawal Wednesday of chief primary opponent Don Bivens.

The development allows Carmona to focus all of his time, money and energy on his general-election campaign and avoid burning his resources in a potentially costly and divisive primary fight.

Carmona, a former registered independent, was encouraged by President Barack Obama to run for the seat of retiring three-term Republican Sen. Jon Kyl.

Although he still could face some intraparty competition if little-known Democrats David Ruben and Sheila Bilyeu make the ballot, Carmona essentially now can look toward squaring off in November against the winner of the Republican Senate primary.

The GOP race, meanwhile, is increasingly looking like it could turn into a nasty fight between U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., the front-runner, and Wil Cardon, an independently wealthy investor who recently launched an expensive advertising push to boost his name ID.

A big-money, negative GOP grudge match would increase the likelihood that the eventual Republican nominee will be damaged before the general election, a scenario that would further boost Carmona's prospects.

Obama's re-election campaign and other national Democrats have expressed confidence that a strong Carmona candidacy could help them carry the traditionally red Arizona in the presidential race -- a possibility that national Republicans are quick to dismiss as ridiculous.

Former Sen. Dennis DeConcini, D-Ariz., a strong Carmona supporter, hailed his friend Bivens for showing what he characterized as true leadership in making the tough decision to bow out for the good of the party.

"The Democrats have a real opportunity to win this seat," DeConcini told The Arizona Republic. "There's just no question that this will help immensely for both fundraising and support."

Bivens, an attorney and a former Arizona Democratic Party chairman, had been under intense pressure from national party leaders to quit. Carmona was surgeon general from 2002 to 2006 under Republican President George W. Bush. He has a law-enforcement background and is a decorated Vietnam War veteran, and is considered by many Democrats to be more electable than Bivens in GOP-leaning Arizona.

Bivens had trailed Carmona in the polls and in fundraising, but not by such a margin that he couldn't have made some trouble in a primary. Bivens even launched a cable television commercial this month that attacked Flake over his positions on women's issues.

But some political experts are skeptical that Bivens could have captured Kyl's seat in the general election.

"I don't think he (Bivens) had much of a chance to win, frankly," said Bruce Merrill, a veteran Arizona political scientist and senior research fellow at Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy. "If you go back and look at the history of the Democratic Party in Arizona, one of the reasons they've had a hard time competing over the last several years is that they haven't united in the primary behind one person. If you're going to run against a guy like Flake, you don't want two or three guys dividing the money, the resources, etc."

Bivens acknowledged as much Wednesday in the written statement announcing the end of his candidacy.

"The continuing head-to-head competition of our Democratic primary is draining resources that we will need as a party to win the U.S. Senate race in November," Bivens said in the statement. "While I am confident we would win this primary, the cost and impact on the party I've spent my life fighting for could diminish our chance to achieve the ultimate goal: winning in November."

Carmona in turn issued a written statement praising Bivens as "a cornerstone" of the state Democratic Party.

"An agent of change for our state, Don knew how great of an opportunity we have to win this seat and knew that it would take a strong and united effort to do so," Carmona said. "He and his team ran a strong race that showed a great deal of respect for the nominating process which in turn has improved our party's chance of success in November."

Carmona could not be reached for comment to elaborate on the Senate race post-Bivens.

Bivens' decision to drop out of the race frees his political and financial supporters to migrate to Carmona. Some of Bivens' endorsements already were feeling the pressure to switch. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., initially had endorsed Bivens but in February changed her status in the race to neutral.

With Obama and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee solidly in Carmona's corner, it was inevitable that Bivens eventually would succumb to the pressure and get out, said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes U.S. Senate races for the nonpartisan, Washington, D.C.-based Cook Political Report.

"I actually call it strangulation," Duffy said. "They basically cut off the blood supply: endorsements, money. A campaign can't help but wither under that if you don't have the resources to fund it yourself."

Brian Walsh, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman, said his party looks forward to Obama and Carmona stumping together in Arizona.

"After President Obama personally recruited Richard Carmona to run for the Senate, it should surprise no one that the liberal Washington establishment would eventually clear the field for their anointed candidate and loyal ally," Walsh said. "Today's news only serves as a reminder to Arizonans that a vote for Carmona this November is a vote for President Obama's liberal, big-government agenda of higher taxes, reckless Washington spending and job-killing health-care takeovers."

National Republicans don't have a similar strategy to clear the GOP primary field for Flake and instead are leaving it to Arizona voters to choose the nominee. In addition to Flake and Cardon, three other Republican candidates are running: former Youngtown Mayor Bryan Hackbarth, conservative radio host Clair "Van" Van Steenwyk, and "tea party" activist John Lyon.

Polls have shown Flake with a towering lead over Cardon, whose support has been in single digits. But those surveys came before Cardon embarked on a major advertising campaign on broadcast television, cable TV and radio that is estimated to cost more than $450,000. Cardon also has been trying to chip away at Flake's lead with online videos that attack Flake, a six-term congressman, on illegal immigration and for his international travel at taxpayer expense. Some Republicans worry that a wounded GOP nominee will emerge to face Carmona in the general election.

"I'm amazed at the amount of money he's spending," Merrill said of Cardon.

"I doubt Wil Cardon is going to get out," Duffy said.

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