Montana race could tip balance of power in U.S. Senate

BUTTE, Mont. – Facing a competitive re-election battle for his U.S. Senate seat, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester returned for a recent weekend trip home and did what comes naturally: He rode a tractor.

By Walter Hinick, The Montana Standard

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., rides a John Deere tractor in the annual St. Patrick's Day parade in Butte, Mont., on March 17.

By Walter Hinick, The Montana Standard

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., rides a John Deere tractor in the annual St. Patrick's Day parade in Butte, Mont., on March 17.

The first-term senator and organic farmer spent a rainy Saturday afternoon atop a vintage John Deere tractor adorned with his campaign slogan, "Montana Farmer, Montana Values," in a St. Patrick's Day parade here. Unknown to Tester, the Republican trying to defeat him, Rep. Denny Rehberg, trailed several blocks behind, waving to voters in an appearance that caught some Tester supporters by surprise in this union-friendly, Democratic town.

Over the course of the next seven months, Tester and Rehberg will continue to shadow each other as they travel the same turf in a fight that holds national consequences. Tester, Rehberg and independent analysts agree that Montana might dictate which party controls the Senate next year, and thus has greater leverage in pending battles over sweeping debates ranging from the expiring Bush tax cuts to President Obama's health care law.

Montanans realize the implications.

"The majority is absolutely a factor," said Ted Kronebusch, a 60-year-old electrician from Pondera County and a Rehberg supporter. "This is why it is one of the most critical races in the United States."

Democrats are facing an uphill battle to hold on to their 53-seat majority, which includes two independent senators who caucus with Democrats. Of the 33 Senate races this year, 21 are held by Democrats, two by the independents and 10 are held by Republicans.

About a dozen races are considered competitive, where both parties are engaged. Democrats are defending nine seats they control while Republicans are defending just three: Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada, and the Maine seat held by retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe.

Republicans will need either a net gain of four seats to win the majority outright, or three seats and control of the White House to tilt a 50-50 Senate to their control. (When the Senate is evenly split, the vice president is the tiebreaker.) If Obama wins re-election, Democrats can lose no more than three seats to hold on to the chamber.

"There is no path to a majority without North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana," Rehberg told USA TODAY in an interview before a speech at a Lincoln Day dinner in Pondera, a conservative county where he enjoys a strong base of support. "I think the Democrats know that. I clearly know it. I feel the pressure," he said.

Montana has been a dead heat from the start and is expected to remain so right up to the Nov. 6 vote. A March 14-16 poll conducted by The Billings Gazette gave Tester a 46%-45% lead, with 9% undecided.

Both Tester and Rehberg have won statewide races and are well-known. That means the contest will turn on which side can best get out its vote and appeal to the small slice of swing voters — a formula that will be replayed in races across the nation, including the presidential contest. When races run so tight, it puts a greater focus on personality and a candidate's ability to relate to people.

"People tend to like both of them, which is why this going to be so personal," said David Parker, a Montana State University professor who is writing a book, Battle for the Big Sky, on the race. "A key to victory is going to be turning out the base by riling them up which means: negative, negative, negative, attack, attack, attack."

The national picture

For Republicans, the Democratic-held seats in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota are widely viewed as must-wins if the party stands a chance at taking control of the chamber. Democrats are confident they will pick up at least one of the GOP-held seats, which leaves Republicans hoping to pick off a seat in New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia or Wisconsin.

Within the 2012 battleground, election experts broadly agree that four contests are expected to be exceptionally close: Montana, Massachusetts, Nevada and Virginia. "Every one of these races will end in the margin of error unless something unexpected happens between now and November," said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate election expert for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Based on the state's political climate, Maine is the ripest target for a Democratic pickup. The leading contender there, former governor Angus King, an independent, has not expressly stated which party he would side with, but his record is more in line with the Democratic Party. Democrats are also hotly contesting GOP-held seats in Massachusetts and Nevada.

Though the Senate contests in Democratic-held Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida don't look good for Republicans today, the races are expected to tighten with the influence of the presidential election. Likewise, races in Nebraska and North Dakota would appear to be ripe for the GOP, but Democrats are not conceding them, believing they have candidates who can win despite the strong conservative leanings in both states.

When elections poll as tightly as Montana's Senate race, the campaigns tend to get personal, which is why the Tester campaign is emphasizing that character matters. First elected in a narrow 2006 victory against scandal-tainted incumbent GOP Sen. Conrad Burns, the plain-spoken Democrat promotes himself as a "citizen-legislator" who regularly returns home to maintain the farm that he operates with his wife.

"I think in Montana, your word is your bond. Your handshake means something. I think that is still out there. I think they still respect people who take this citizen-legislator thing for real as our forefathers wanted," Tester told USA TODAY in an interview. "Montanans appreciate hard work. They did in '06, and I think they still do now."

Tester's burly build, trademark military-style buzz cut, and mangled left hand — he lost three fingers in a childhood meat grinder accident — are physical symbols of a tough persona that resonate with many Montanans.

"He's our guy," said Sean Smith, a third-generation member of the Butte-based Plumbers & Pipefitters Local Union 41, which has endorsed Tester. Smith cited Tester's successful effort to pass legislation expanding incentives for hiring veterans, as well as Tester's support of the $800 billion stimulus bill because it helped purchase mobile trailers for the union to train workers. "I'm for Tester. I'm for what he stands for and believes in," Smith said.

The campaign is trying to create a contrast of character with Rehberg, who Tester called "a guy who really hasn't done anything in the last 35 years he's been in office but sit on the sidelines and complain and throw stones."

Tester's campaign has targeted some of Rehberg's personal issues, including a 2008 lawsuit Rehberg filed against the Billings fire department over alleged negligence concerning a wildfire that burned undeveloped land he owns. Rehberg dropped the suit last year. The Tester campaign has also highlighted a 2009 boat crash involving Rehberg and four others. Rehberg had alcohol in his blood, but he was not driving the boat and not accused of wrongdoing.

The incidents were widely reported, and voters have yet to show dissatisfaction. Since his first election to the U.S. House in 2000, Rehberg has not won re-election with less than 59%, although he has never faced opposition as fierce as the Senate race.

In an interview, Rehberg acknowledged the attacks but dismissed their impact. "The only hope they have of defeating me is to make it personal. The people of Montana don't like personal campaigns and I think they're going to react negatively," he said.

At 56, Rehberg has spent most of his life in political office, having served in the state House and as lieutenant governor before winning his current seat in 2000. Caffeinated and mustachioed, Rehberg also has a distinctive flair. He is well-known across the state and visits every county in every election cycle.

"For all of his foibles that may have come out, he spends a lot of time in the state. People see him around, they know him, and they like him," Parker said. "He's shrewder than people give him credit for."

The Obama factor

One vulnerability that Rehberg's campaign has identified is Tester's links to Obama, who is deeply unpopular in the state. According to Gallup, the president had a 34% approval rating in Montana last year; he only fared worse in five other states.

Rehberg's main advantage is facing an opponent who will have to outperform his party's president by a significant margin. Another Democratic incumbent, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, is facing the same challenge, as are Democratic candidates in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin — all states where the president's approval rating was under 50%.

"There's no daylight" between Tester and Obama, Rehberg told USA TODAY. "When the people of Montana see, realize and understand that he votes with Barack Obama 95% of the time … they're not going to vote for him."

At times, Tester has split with Democrats — most recently in his support of construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to the Gulf Coast — but he has voted with Obama on the most critical issues of his presidency: the stimulus, the health care legislation and the Dodd-Frank financial services overhaul.

Tester said he appeals to a broad swath of voters, even those who oppose the president. "Montanans split tickets. They vote for people, not for parties."

Tester, like many Democrats in 2012, is focusing on his support of Medicare and efforts by the GOP to privatize some or all of the popular entitlement program. But Rehberg voted against the House GOP budget that included plans to privatize Medicare in both 2011 and 2012.

Tester and Rehberg's personal jabs exemplify how the Senate has become polarized in ways that affect the chamber's ability to legislate, but the 2012 elections could remake the Senate in a way that would have an immediate and significant impact.

The House of Representatives is not currently so competitive that the 242-to-190-seat GOP majority is in serious doubt, but the Senate could prove to be the buffer or the blocker to the next president, thus amplifying the importance of contests like the spirited one in Montana.

Duffy, of the Cook Political Report, sees a wide open contest in Big Sky Country and beyond.

"The Senate is a jump ball," she said.

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