Gosar won by a wider margin than most

Early this year, many political insiders thought Republican freshman Rep. Paul Gosar was in trouble.

Vote margins between Republican and Democratic candidates in U.S. House races

With his Congressional District 1 redrawn to make it more favorable to Democrats, the Flagstaff dentist announced that he was going to run for re-election in the neighboring District 4 in western Arizona, which is heavily conservative. There, he faced competition from Ron Gould, a state lawmaker, and Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who was considered the favorite.

But Babeu dropped out after a scandal tainted his campaign, and Gosar went on to win the primary.

Now, totals from the Nov. 6 general election show that Gosar won re-election by a wider margin than any of his colleagues or soon-to-be colleagues except one -- senior delegation member Ed Pastor, a Democrat who faced only a Libertarian candidate.

Gosar had a 38 percentage-point margin over Democrat Johnnie Robinson in the rural district that includes Lake Havasu City, Prescott and part of Yuma. It helped that the district is considered one of the most conservative in the state and Robinson was virtually unknown.

In the 5th Congressional District in the far East Valley, also one of the more conservative districts in the state, former Republican Rep. Matt Salmon won re-election with a 34 percentage-point margin in his race against Democrat Spencer Morgan. He had the next-highest margin after Gosar.

Even entrenched incumbent Reps. Trent Franks, a West Valley Republican, and Raúl Grijalva, a Tucson Democrat, drew smaller margins.

Gosar attributes his support to campaigning for votes in the fall, pretending he was "20 points down," despite his likely success in the general election after clinching a tough August primary.

"We've always gone anywhere and everywhere to listen to people; whether it be one person for coffee, three farmers for coffee or breakfast or 300 veterans, we come and talk," Gosar said. "It's part of the mantra of a health-care provider. When you walk into my office, I can't start pulling teeth. I have to ask you, 'What hurts, and how can I help you?'"

In a separate measure of support, voter turnout was lowest in the Hispanic-heavy districts held by longtime Democratic incumbents Pastor and Grijalva.

The total votes cast in Pastor's west Phoenix district, 128,379, and Grijalva's southern Arizona district, 168,980, were tens of thousands below Arizona's other House races. The most popular House contest, won by Republican Rep. David Schweikert, drew nearly double the number of ballots.

Voter apathy is likely one factor in the low turnout, given that Pastor and Grijalva were nearly assured re-election.

But the congressmen mostly blamed demographics. Pastor's district, largely lower-income, has fewer registered voters because more people are young, undocumented immigrants or have criminal pasts that preclude them from voting, he said. But groups such as Mi Familia Vota worked hard to sign up as many voters as possible, he said.

Grijalva argued the Democratic Party needs to spend more money to get voters to the polls, even in places where a competitive race may not be in play, because other races such as the statewide U.S. Senate contest could have benefited.

"You're kind of left to your own devices," he said. "We've never been able to match the turnout I had the first time I ran."

Redistricting also may have hurt turnout in Pastor and Grijalva's races. The once-a-decade redrawing of the political map cut out some of the congressmen's highest-performing neighborhoods.

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