COMMENTARY | One hesitates to agree with anything Howard Dean has to say. However, occasionally, the mercurial former governor of Vermont, former presidential candidate and former chairman of the DNC has some interesting insights.
According to the Hill, he has insights such as this one: Sarah Palin can beat President Barack Obama. Dean's thesis is that the bad economy is eroding the confidence of the American people in the current administration so profoundly that they will in short order become hungry for change, which Palin certainly represents.
Dean's analysis goes against the conventional, inside the Beltway wisdom that Palin's current poll negatives are so high that she cannot possibly win the Republican nomination, never mind the general election. "Directorblue" over at Hot Air recounts the perceived wisdom of Charles Krauthammer and George Will, well respected elders of the Washington punditcracy, about the unelectability of Palin. That wisdom is reflected in numerous columns, pronouncements on TV chat shows, and, of course, the obscene rantings of Bill Maher, who regards a possible Palin presidency with fear and loathing.
But Dean is going back to another conventional wisdom, which has stood the test of time, that a bad economy tends to translate to electoral defeat for a sitting president, no matter whom his opponent is. That was true for Jimmy Carter when he was opposed by a wild, radical right wing nut named Ronald Reagan. That was true for George H.W. Bush when he was opposed by a slimy, left wing draft dodging skirt chaser named Bill Clinton.
It was even kind of true when John McCain, of the same party as the sitting president, went up against a smooth talking, radical acolyte of Saul Alinsky named Barack Obama.
The only question is, which Dean's scenario (which for him must be a living nightmare) play out. First, Palin had to enter the race. Then she has to beat a field of candidates, some of them quite formidable. Then she has to beat President Obama. Along the way she has to change the minds of many people who are not disposed at this time to vote for her and cause them at least to take a second look.
Howard Dean thinks that if the bad economy persists, which it shows every sign of doing, she can do that, to the detriment of President Obama's reelection chances.
