Independents' vote crucial for Parker, Sinema in House battle

A tree-lined Phoenix street near the Arizona Biltmore offered a glimpse on a recent afternoon into the unpredictability of the 9th District congressional race.

Residents of three nearby houses were registered as Democrat, independent and Republican. Their varied affiliations reflect the nearly even split between the major parties in the district, as well as the prevalence of voters with "no party preference."

Republican Vernon Parker and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will have to court the independent crowd more than candidates in any other U.S. House race in the state.

In Arizona, only the 9th District is dominated by independents, who outnumber Republicans by 15,000 and Democrats by 21,000. By definition, these so-called swing voters are not easy to pin down.

Arizona has two other competitive districts -- northern Arizona's 1st District and southern Arizona's 2nd District -- but neither has as many independent voters.

"I don't like to classify myself with one or another. It's like belonging to one religion," said 58-year-old interior designer Karen Rapp, the independent living on the Phoenix street. She said she often votes Democratic for state offices and Republican for federal offices because she likes the idea of parties splitting power and thinks their platforms work better in those positions.

This time around, though, she plans to deviate and vote for Sinema because a neighbor -- the nearby registered Democrat -- works for the former state lawmaker's campaign and has sung her praises.

To attract more independent voters like Rapp, Parker and Sinema are touting their crossover appeal and accusing each other of being "extreme."

The candidates tell stories of overcoming childhood poverty through education and hard work. They argue that their ideas about taxes and the economy will help middle-class families. And on some issues, such as immigration, they advocate positions closer to the middle than some in their parties.

For instance, Sinema voted in the Legislature for sending National Guard troops to the border and stiffening penalties for owners of drophouses. In Congress, she wants to require banks to freeze suspected drug-cartel accounts.

Parker, on the other hand, recently told The Arizona Republic he would support some version of the Dream Act or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's alternative to provide a path to legal status for young immigrants brought to the United States illegally by their parents, though he did not specify what changes he would make to those plans.

Wes Gullett, a political strategist at the nonpartisan consulting firm FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs and a former Republican candidate for Phoenix mayor, said 9th District voters are among the most politically engaged in the state. Much of the district is expected to vote this fall.

An Arizona Republic analysis of voting data shows primary turnout, though small overall, was highest among independents in north and central Phoenix, suggesting the battle between Parker and Sinema may be fiercest there. The district also covers parts of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Gullett, who is not supporting either candidate, said north-central Phoenix neighborhoods like Arcadia and areas near Piestewa Peak are always highly contested in city, legislative and congressional races. Voters in those areas pay attention, he said.

"There's lots of opportunity there for both campaigns to do well," Gullett said. "It all comes back to those swing voters and figuring out who those swing voters are."

Campaign battlegrounds

The Republic's analysis of 9th District primary data shows:

Independent turnout was small, offering only limited clues to the general election. A variety of factors, including the challenge of requesting a primary ballot, deter independents from voting in the primary. But campaigns use the information as one indicator of where to spend resources for the general election, when many more independents and party voters will cast ballots.

North-central Phoenix, followed by parts of Tempe, Mesa and Ahwatukee, drew the strongest independent turnout during the primary. Those areas are likely to draw high participation in the general election and could become campaign battlegrounds.

Independents voted like their neighbors. In precincts where registered Republicans cast more primary votes, independents also swung Republican. The same was true for precincts that leaned Democratic. Parker and Sinema will likely garner the most support from independents in areas where their party bases are enthusiastic.

Though independent registration continues to grow in Arizona, independents who vote in primaries remain rare, as is the case with all voters. Only 8.8 percent of ballots cast in the 9th District primary came from independents, according to data provided to The Republic from the Maricopa County Elections Department through the state Democratic Party.

One reason independents turn out in low numbers is the extra step to receive early primary ballots, said Paul Johnson, a former Phoenix Democratic mayor. While party voters on the permanent early-voting list automatically receive primary ballots, independents must tell the county Elections Department which party ballot they want.

That keeps many independents from voting, said Johnson.

He is advocating for passage of Proposition 121, which would eliminate the party-ballot system and allow voters, regardless of party, to vote for any candidate during the primary. Independents then would receive early ballots as party voters do. Opponents say in practice the system is unlikely to boost independent turnout.

Rapp, the independent Phoenix voter, didn't vote in the primary because she didn't receive an early ballot.

"It wasn't convenient," Rapp said.

Other independents may sit out primaries because they don't feel strongly enough to vote or don't think it's right to participate in a partisan primary, said Michael O'Neil, president of Tempe polling firm O'Neil Associates Inc.

Since many more independents are expected to vote on Nov. 6, the primary patterns provide some insight but aren't enough to predict the general-election outcome, O'Neil said.

"It might be suggestive, but it's not necessarily predictive," he said.

Still, independents are key to the race, he said, because party registrations are so close. If party voters turn out in equal numbers, swing voters could determine whether Parker or Sinema win.

The closest correlation between the primary and the general is turnout, said Jim Haynes, president of the Phoenix-based polling company Behavior Research Center. Areas that drew heavy participation from independent voters in the primary are likely to stay that way in the general.

Precincts with the highest independent turnout were in north-central Phoenix, where both Parker and Sinema drew strong support from party voters because of their long ties there. Parker served near the area as Paradise Valley mayor and councilman. Sinema was a state legislator and social worker in the area. Both resigned this year to focus on their campaigns.

The north Phoenix Madison Heights precinct, which abuts Paradise Valley, had the highest independent participation, 15 percent. Precincts with independent turnout higher than 9 percent also occurred in west Mesa, south Tempe and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Residents in those neighborhoods typically have higher incomes, higher education and deeper roots in the community, Gullett said. Those factors are often linked to turnout.

One anomaly may be in the Tempe precincts around Arizona State University, according to Gullett, where primary participation was tiny. Those areas could become more active in the fall when students are settled in school, he said.

Many unknowns

Though it's harder to predict how independents will vote in the general election, Republic maps of primary returns show independents largely followed the party leanings in their neighborhoods.

Independents went red in Republican-leaning northeast Phoenix, west Mesa and west Chandler, while independents went blue in Democratic-leaning central Phoenix, Tempe and downtown Chandler.

Campaigns will use that information, coupled with voter profiles compiled by the state parties and past elections results, to determine voters and neighborhoods to target with direct mail, phone calls and door-knocking.

Haynes said he wasn't surprised to see independents leaning in the same direction as their party-registered neighbors. Some independents may be disaffected party members who still vote with the party they dropped.

But much remains unknown about many independents, he said, such as whether they are former Democrats, former Republicans or independents from the start. If he were a part of a campaign, Haynes said, his biggest effort would be to "find out who these people are and how to reach them."

Much work ahead

Though the Parker and Sinema campaigns see value in understanding the primary voting patterns, they promise to go after both independents and party voters and to compete across the district.

The candidates' work is cut out for them.

Jeanette Irwin was watering her garden while she talked politics. The 68-year-old retired teacher and registered Republican said she's open to voting for either candidate, though she likes what she's heard about Parker.

"I'm still deciding," Irwin said. "We have many times voted Democratic if the candidates are better. … I wouldn't vote party totally. I financially support the Republican Party, but hey, if somebody else is better ?"

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

Posted

View the original article here

Independents' vote crucial for Parker, Sinema in House battle

A tree-lined Phoenix street near the Arizona Biltmore offered a glimpse on a recent afternoon into the unpredictability of the 9th District congressional race.

Residents of three nearby houses were registered as Democrat, independent and Republican. Their varied affiliations reflect the nearly even split between the major parties in the district, as well as the prevalence of voters with "no party preference."

Republican Vernon Parker and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will have to court the independent crowd more than candidates in any other U.S. House race in the state.

In Arizona, only the 9th District is dominated by independents, who outnumber Republicans by 15,000 and Democrats by 21,000. By definition, these so-called swing voters are not easy to pin down.

Arizona has two other competitive districts -- northern Arizona's 1st District and southern Arizona's 2nd District -- but neither has as many independent voters.

"I don't like to classify myself with one or another. It's like belonging to one religion," said 58-year-old interior designer Karen Rapp, the independent living on the Phoenix street. She said she often votes Democratic for state offices and Republican for federal offices because she likes the idea of parties splitting power and thinks their platforms work better in those positions.

This time around, though, she plans to deviate and vote for Sinema because a neighbor -- the nearby registered Democrat -- works for the former state lawmaker's campaign and has sung her praises.

To attract more independent voters like Rapp, Parker and Sinema are touting their crossover appeal and accusing each other of being "extreme."

The candidates tell stories of overcoming childhood poverty through education and hard work. They argue that their ideas about taxes and the economy will help middle-class families. And on some issues, such as immigration, they advocate positions closer to the middle than some in their parties.

For instance, Sinema voted in the Legislature for sending National Guard troops to the border and stiffening penalties for owners of drophouses. In Congress, she wants to require banks to freeze suspected drug-cartel accounts.

Parker, on the other hand, recently told The Arizona Republic he would support some version of the Dream Act or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's alternative to provide a path to legal status for young immigrants brought to the United States illegally by their parents, though he did not specify what changes he would make to those plans.

Wes Gullett, a political strategist at the nonpartisan consulting firm FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs and a former Republican candidate for Phoenix mayor, said 9th District voters are among the most politically engaged in the state. Much of the district is expected to vote this fall.

An Arizona Republic analysis of voting data shows primary turnout, though small overall, was highest among independents in north and central Phoenix, suggesting the battle between Parker and Sinema may be fiercest there. The district also covers parts of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Gullett, who is not supporting either candidate, said north-central Phoenix neighborhoods like Arcadia and areas near Piestewa Peak are always highly contested in city, legislative and congressional races. Voters in those areas pay attention, he said.

"There's lots of opportunity there for both campaigns to do well," Gullett said. "It all comes back to those swing voters and figuring out who those swing voters are."

Campaign battlegrounds

The Republic's analysis of 9th District primary data shows:

Independent turnout was small, offering only limited clues to the general election. A variety of factors, including the challenge of requesting a primary ballot, deter independents from voting in the primary. But campaigns use the information as one indicator of where to spend resources for the general election, when many more independents and party voters will cast ballots.

North-central Phoenix, followed by parts of Tempe, Mesa and Ahwatukee, drew the strongest independent turnout during the primary. Those areas are likely to draw high participation in the general election and could become campaign battlegrounds.

Independents voted like their neighbors. In precincts where registered Republicans cast more primary votes, independents also swung Republican. The same was true for precincts that leaned Democratic. Parker and Sinema will likely garner the most support from independents in areas where their party bases are enthusiastic.

Though independent registration continues to grow in Arizona, independents who vote in primaries remain rare, as is the case with all voters. Only 8.8 percent of ballots cast in the 9th District primary came from independents, according to data provided to The Republic from the Maricopa County Elections Department through the state Democratic Party.

One reason independents turn out in low numbers is the extra step to receive early primary ballots, said Paul Johnson, a former Phoenix Democratic mayor. While party voters on the permanent early-voting list automatically receive primary ballots, independents must tell the county Elections Department which party ballot they want.

That keeps many independents from voting, said Johnson.

He is advocating for passage of Proposition 121, which would eliminate the party-ballot system and allow voters, regardless of party, to vote for any candidate during the primary. Independents then would receive early ballots as party voters do. Opponents say in practice the system is unlikely to boost independent turnout.

Rapp, the independent Phoenix voter, didn't vote in the primary because she didn't receive an early ballot.

"It wasn't convenient," Rapp said.

Other independents may sit out primaries because they don't feel strongly enough to vote or don't think it's right to participate in a partisan primary, said Michael O'Neil, president of Tempe polling firm O'Neil Associates Inc.

Since many more independents are expected to vote on Nov. 6, the primary patterns provide some insight but aren't enough to predict the general-election outcome, O'Neil said.

"It might be suggestive, but it's not necessarily predictive," he said.

Still, independents are key to the race, he said, because party registrations are so close. If party voters turn out in equal numbers, swing voters could determine whether Parker or Sinema win.

The closest correlation between the primary and the general is turnout, said Jim Haynes, president of the Phoenix-based polling company Behavior Research Center. Areas that drew heavy participation from independent voters in the primary are likely to stay that way in the general.

Precincts with the highest independent turnout were in north-central Phoenix, where both Parker and Sinema drew strong support from party voters because of their long ties there. Parker served near the area as Paradise Valley mayor and councilman. Sinema was a state legislator and social worker in the area. Both resigned this year to focus on their campaigns.

The north Phoenix Madison Heights precinct, which abuts Paradise Valley, had the highest independent participation, 15 percent. Precincts with independent turnout higher than 9 percent also occurred in west Mesa, south Tempe and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Residents in those neighborhoods typically have higher incomes, higher education and deeper roots in the community, Gullett said. Those factors are often linked to turnout.

One anomaly may be in the Tempe precincts around Arizona State University, according to Gullett, where primary participation was tiny. Those areas could become more active in the fall when students are settled in school, he said.

Many unknowns

Though it's harder to predict how independents will vote in the general election, Republic maps of primary returns show independents largely followed the party leanings in their neighborhoods.

Independents went red in Republican-leaning northeast Phoenix, west Mesa and west Chandler, while independents went blue in Democratic-leaning central Phoenix, Tempe and downtown Chandler.

Campaigns will use that information, coupled with voter profiles compiled by the state parties and past elections results, to determine voters and neighborhoods to target with direct mail, phone calls and door-knocking.

Haynes said he wasn't surprised to see independents leaning in the same direction as their party-registered neighbors. Some independents may be disaffected party members who still vote with the party they dropped.

But much remains unknown about many independents, he said, such as whether they are former Democrats, former Republicans or independents from the start. If he were a part of a campaign, Haynes said, his biggest effort would be to "find out who these people are and how to reach them."

Much work ahead

Though the Parker and Sinema campaigns see value in understanding the primary voting patterns, they promise to go after both independents and party voters and to compete across the district.

The candidates' work is cut out for them.

Jeanette Irwin was watering her garden while she talked politics. The 68-year-old retired teacher and registered Republican said she's open to voting for either candidate, though she likes what she's heard about Parker.

"I'm still deciding," Irwin said. "We have many times voted Democratic if the candidates are better. … I wouldn't vote party totally. I financially support the Republican Party, but hey, if somebody else is better ?"

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

Posted

View the original article here

Senate Primary Over, New Battle Begins in Indiana

Democrats were casting the general election fight as a referendum on whether moderates should still have a place in Washington, while Tea Party organizers said it would be seen as a national test of the movement’s enduring strength.

Democratic leaders, who had doubted their odds against Mr. Lugar, a Republican so moderate that even the leaders admitted that plenty of Democrats liked him, sounded giddy about their November opponent: Richard E. Mourdock, a Tea Party-supported Republican who seized a remarkable 61 percent of the vote in part by denouncing bipartisanship and pledging to an unwavering conservative approach.

“Democratic donors across the country are going to see this as a prime pickup opportunity,” said Matt Canter, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who added that the Indiana seat would fall among five top Republican-held seats being targeted in the fight for control of the Senate.

Labor leaders, too, said they saw an opportunity now in Indiana. “We’re all ramping up our plans as we speak,” said Nancy J. Guyott, president of the Indiana A.F.L.-C.I.O.

National conservative groups, some of which had poured more than $3 million to benefit Mr. Mourdock in the primary, were poised to send still more if needed. The number of such outside groups also appeared likely to grow if the contest here, against Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat, appears truly competitive — a notion some conservative leaders remained skeptical about, given Indiana’s Republican leanings.

“It’s a big race because a lot hinges on our success,” said Brendan Steinhauser, director of federal and state campaigns at FreedomWorks, which trains Tea Party members and which spent about $850,000 in Mr. Mourdock’s victory and plans to be similarly involved in the general election.

“If Mourdock were not to win,” Mr. Steinhauser said, the gloating would come not just from Democrats but establishment Republicans, pointing to the Tea Party. “They would want to blame that on us — ‘See, we told you so,’ ” he said.

By Wednesday, the outlines of a new political battle were emerging, with Democrats trying to paint Mr. Mourdock as a far-right candidate with little appeal for independents or moderate Republicans, and conservatives portraying Mr. Donnelly as a typical Democrat.

The Club for Growth, which had spent money on television and radio commercials against Mr. Lugar in the primary and said it would contribute more, if needed, in the general election, said Mr. Donnelly was “an economic liberal who votes in lock-step” with Democratic leaders.

Mr. Donnelly, who was elected in 2006 to represent a northern Indiana district, described himself as among the most conservative Democrats in the House in a moment when, he said, voters are looking for something different than they were in 2010. “Right now, it’s not about fire and brimstone,” he said. “It’s about jobs and the opportunity for your family to succeed.”

Although President Obama won Indiana in 2008, the state has long been a place where Republicans do well, and Mr. Obama is considered unlikely to win here again. None of it would seem to be fertile ground for a Democratic Senate bid, and some conservative leaders said they remained unconvinced that Mr. Mourdock would have any trouble in November.

But Dan Parker, the chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, described Mr. Mourdock as an “extreme Tea Party candidate,” who would not appeal to a general election audience. “Dick Lugar was the mainstream Republican,” he said. “Indiana is not crazy conservative.”

Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a Democrat, who rose from nowhere to be elected in 2010 after Republicans there rejected a popular moderate and nominated Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell, said he reached out to Mr. Donnelly Tuesday night after Mr. Lugar’s defeat.

“I think there’s a very good chance he could be the Chris Coons of 2012,” the senator said.

State Republican leaders, calling on Wednesday for party unity following Mr. Lugar’s loss, stood beside Mr. Mourdock on a stage here and seemed eager to play down his Tea Party ties and emphasize his traditional Republican credentials. Complicating the efforts, Mr. Lugar, who was not in attendance at the gathering, issued a sharp statement condemning what he suggested was a rising trend of rejecting political independence and bipartisan conversation.  

“He comes right out of the heart, right out of mainstream of our party, and I think that was really, among many, his longest single suit in the huge win that he had yesterday,” said Gov. Mitch Daniels, the governor, who had endorsed Mr. Lugar and had previously said he viewed Mr. Mourdock as a friend.

Indeed, Mr. Mourdock is in his second term as state treasurer, and he has been known for appearing at local Republican events and county dinners for years; when he announced his bid for the senate, he had a surprising majority of endorsements from the party’s county chairmen and chairwomen around the state.

“The first label they’re going to try to put on me is that Mourdock is this wild-eyed Tea Party guy,” Mr. Mourdock said. “But as the governor said, I’ve been swimming in the pool of Republican politics a long time,” he said, growing choked up as he described his love for the party.

Jonathan Weisman contributed reporting from Washington, and Steven Greenhouse from New York.

View the original article here

North Carolina a Front in Democrats’ Battle for House

“Those are decisions they had to make on a personal level,” said Mr. Kissell, whose district outside Charlotte has gone from being mildly Republican in his first election in 2008 to 12 percentage points in favor of the opposition party now. “I really view this as being a job of serving the public. It’s not a campaign for me; it’s just doing our job. And if we do a good job, the results will go our way.”

Republicans have a different view. They see North Carolina as the state that stands between Democrats and their dreams of retaking the House.

Congressional redistricting, a decennial process that generally allows the party in legislative power in each state to draw new lines, has not created many opportunities for new seats for Republicans, as the party’s leaders once expected. But it has forced multiple House Democrats, viewing their odds in new districts as slim, into retirement. Many of those districts are now either in play or solidly Republican, making the climb for Democrats all that more onerous.

On paper, Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to take back House control. In reality, the number is closer to 30 or even 35, since the party is likely not only to lose the seats of retiring Democrats in North Carolina, but also to face tougher odds in Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Indiana, Illinois and perhaps in Arizona, in the district once served by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords.

Over all, 15 Democrats have announced their retirements from the House, compared with 10 Republicans. Seven Democrats and eight Republicans have also opted to run for other offices. Among the lot, Republicans leave far more safe seats behind than their Democratic counterparts.

Of the seats where members are not seeking re-election, just two — one in Illinois and the other in California — have the potential to flip from Republican to Democrat, said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, while at least six seats held by Democrats are at risk of falling to Republicans, thanks to new lines. Among those are the North Carolina seats being vacated by Representatives Heath Shuler and Brad Miller.

“Democrats are at a disadvantage because of these retirements,” Mr. Wasserman said. “Those retirements have hamstrung their requirements of picking up the 25 seats they need.”

Between the retirements and new office seekers, members who have already been picked off in primary battles and the addition of new Congressional seats in some states via redistricting, 56 House seats are now left without incumbents, the highest number since 1992, Mr. Wasserman said. This has led both parties to study maps obsessively, looking for new places to eke out victory. Both will find them, but Democrats will find fewer on balance.

“Democrats are feeling the Tar Heel blues in North Carolina and across the country, with Democrats choosing to retire rather than be saddled with the albatross of a failed Obama economic agenda,” said Andrea Bozek, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “These retirements serve as a cautionary sign of the troubles House Democrats face with Barack Obama on the ballot in November.”

The retirements of Mr. Shuler and Mr. Miller, both veteran lawmakers who won in tricky political terrain, have been a blow to Democrats here in North Carolina, and Mr. Kissell and Representative Mike McIntyre have been pressed into districts with steep Republican advantages.

All the Democrats running for re-election here know they are laboring in a state that Republicans feel is their Illinois — the one state where Democrats had a firm hand on redistricting and used it to cause Republicans potential harm — and often hear discomforting words like “bloodbath” describing their prospects here.

But the party is not going down without a fight. Mr. McIntyre and Mr. Kissell are both well known in their districts, even the newer parts, in a state where voters are sometimes known to vote Republican for president and Democratic for the House. Mr. Obama’s re-election efforts will be in full force here — the Democratic National Convention will be in Charlotte — and all Democrats will benefit from his team’s get-out-the-vote efforts among base voters in a state he carried in 2008.

“I am a firm believer and still have confidence in North Carolina voters,” said Hayden Rogers, the longtime chief of staff to Mr. Shuler who, after failing to persuade his boss to run again, decided to go for the seat himself. “I think they are looking for candidates who are rational, and they are less inclined to vote by political affiliation.”

Finally, Democrats here are used to running uphill.

“I am not going to sugarcoat it,” said Representative Steve Israel of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is always hard to lose a valued colleague, but we’re not going to concede North Carolina. Our incumbents survived the toughest climate in recent political history: 2010. They know how to win independents, they know how to win Republicans, they are battle tested, they are field ready, they did it before and they’ll do it again.”

Richard Hudson, a former Congressional staff member, smells opportunity. He is running among a handful of others in the Republican primary in the Eighth District, where Republicans hope to pick off Mr. Kissell. “Part of the challenge is name identification,” Mr. Hudson conceded. “My name ID is 10 percent. Larry Kissell’s is 70 percent.”

But, Mr. Hudson said, under redistricting, Mr. Kissell “does not match the district.” For instance, Mr. Hudson said, while Mr. Kissell voted against the health care law, he did not vote for repeal.

As he walks around the district, Mr. Hudson applies the rules he has learned on the trail. Do not step on lawns; use the walkway. Never sneak up on someone mowing the grass. Do not be too pushy.

“I’m aware of your face!” exclaimed one resident of Concord as he slipped into her yard. Mr. Hudson seemed pleased.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: April 19, 2012

An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of Representative Heath Shuler on second reference.

View the original article here

Battle lines stark as Wis. recall push nears end (AP)

MILWAUKEE – Sonja O'Brien heard from the hecklers outside the Potawatomi casino as she collected signatures in a final push to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

One man yelled at her for forcing the state to spend millions on a recall election. A woman told her she was annoying. And Jack Bublitz, a 75-year-old retired banker, said Democrats would never collect enough names.

"You're not going to do it! You're not going to do it!" Bublitz yelled at her.

But O'Brien figured these naysayers were relatively civil compared to most days over the past two months in what has become a bitter brawl to oust Walker from office. Now the fight is about to move from the streets to the courtroom.

Democrats want to wind up the signature drive this weekend and get the names to state election officials by Tuesday's deadline. GOP legal challenges are almost certain to follow.

The signature campaign has been a microcosm of a political landscape that remains toxic and highly divided a year after the Republican governor introduced his plan to strip almost all public workers of their collective bargaining rights.

"These people are being ridiculous," Bublitz said as he hurried inside the casino. "We elected Walker. Let him serve out his term."

O'Brien, a 57-year-old data technician, shrugged it off.

"We're making history," she said, clad in boots and a parka and armed with two homemade "Recall Walker" signs and a pair of clipboards. "It feels good to empower the people."

Walker argued he had to crack down on unions to balance the state's $3.6 billion budget deficit. But Democrats saw it as a doomsday attack on unions, one of their crucial constituencies.

Thousands of demonstrators protested at the Capitol around the clock for three weeks. The Senate's 14 minority Democrats fled the state in a futile attempt to block a vote on the plan, which Walker eventually signed into law last March.

Democrats have been itching for payback ever since. They ousted two Republican state senators in recall elections last summer, narrowing the GOP's edge in that chamber to just one vote. Now they've set their sights on Walker, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, and four more Republican state senators. They need 540,208 signatures against Walker and the same against Kleefisch to trigger separate recall elections.

That figure was on the minds of the dozen or so volunteers in the Madison recall field office Friday. Petition circulators trickled in, handing over yellow and white lists of names. The volunteers scoured the paperwork, searching for mistakes ranging from sloppy handwriting to January signatures dated 2011 instead of 2012.

"It's been full-tilt boogie here for the last two weeks. It's like Santa's political workshop," said volunteer Alan Ginsberg, a retired Madison teacher. "There are few things I've done in my life that are as satisfying as this operation."

The recall effort has intensified the already rigid battle lines. Republicans have decried the recalls as a frivolous power grab that the state can't afford. Democrats maintain Wisconsin can't take Walker for another three years.

A Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College poll released the same day as the recall signature drive began two months ago found 58 percent of respondents think Walker needs to go, which was up from 47 percent in April. "Recall Walker" signs line yards in Madison, the state's capital. Wisconsin roads are full of vehicles with bumper stickers supporting Walker or calling for his ouster.

In the early days of the signature drive, Walker's supporters vented their anger. In Madison, someone pulled up to a drive-up signature station, grabbed a paper with three signatures on it and ripped it up. Someone anonymously started a Facebook page imploring people to collect petitions and burn them.

The rancor forced state election officials to make an unprecedented call for calm. Then their estimate last week that a statewide recall election would cost $9 million sparked a new round of outrage from Republicans.

State GOP spokesman Ben Sparks said Walker did what he promised he would — make tough decisions to fix the state's finances.

"The Democrats are forcing this completely baseless and expensive recall on Wisconsin families," Sparks said. "Basically, this entire recall effort has been a completely politically driven effort."

Things didn't get brutal outside the Potawatomi casino Wednesday, but passions ran high.

As O'Brien and Karen Hartwell, an unemployed volunteer from Muskego, shivered on public property across the street, a parade of people said they'd already signed a petition. But Michele Corrao, 65, of Grafton, lit up when she saw O'Brien.

"Give me that baby," she said, reaching for O'Brien's clipboard. "I'm dying to sign."

One man berated O'Brien for helping force an election that could cost millions. O'Brien countered the expense would be less than the costs of a new law forcing Wisconsin voters to show voter IDs at the polls.

"We need voter ID because you people are crooked," the man shot back as he stomped off.

The volunteers weren't fazed. In fact, they said, the detractors this day were unusually mild.

"When they're in their cars, that's when they call you blankity-blank-blank," Hartwell said.

Democrats said in December they had collected 507,000 names but have refused to provide any more updates. They want to collect 720,000 signatures, nearly 180,000 more than they need, to ensure the recall withstands GOP court challenges. Sparks said the party has built a statewide network of volunteers to verify signatures, the first step toward a challenge.

Nevertheless, Democrats have scheduled parties around the state this weekend to celebrate.

"Whether or not we reach our internal goal of 720,000 signatures ... this has represented a great victory for democracy and the working people of Wisconsin in the face of a well-financed and totally dishonest corporate agenda run from afar," state Democratic Party chairman Mike Tate said.

Hartwell seemed relieved the drive was almost over. She was clearly suffering from her own personal recall fatigue.

"I've done my part," she said. "I've been out in the rain, in the bitter cold, and I'm done."

View the original article here

Fines pending for Ind. House Dems in labor battle (AP)

INDIANAPOLIS – Growing tension among defiant House Democrats facing stiff fines and sparse resources threatens to disrupt a no-show effort aimed at blocking a bill that would make Indiana the first state in more than a decade to enact right-to-work legislation.

Democrats stalled business Wednesday, the first day of the 2012 session, when they did not report to the House floor. They continued Thursday to block action on a right-to-work measure that would make Indiana the first state in more than a decade to bar private unions from collecting mandatory fees.

Inside the 40-member caucus, lawmakers are split over how much they can afford to keep stalling in order to block the bill. Some strode out of Thursday's caucus meeting saying that if they suffered through last year's five-week stay in Urbana, Ill., they can stand on principle now.

But others said new $1,000-a-day fines established by Republicans after last year's walkout have raised the stakes much higher than some can afford.

"Last year they were taking my bank account, this year they're taking my home," said Rep. David Cheatham, D-North Vernon. Cheatham was one of three Democrats who has joined Republicans in the House chamber each day. They say they oppose the right-to-work measure but don't agree with the stall tactics.

House Democratic Leader Patrick Bauer said Thursday that Republican House Speaker Brian Bosma told him in a private meeting he would begin fining Democrats on Friday.

"It's a significant issue. We think it's another assault against free speech," Bauer said as he walked into the House Democratic caucus meeting.

But Bosma said he had not decided whether to begin implementing the fines Friday and that no legal paperwork had been started.

"We're just counting on folks having some common sense and showing up for work eventually," Bosma said.

Rep. Ed DeLaney, D-Indianapolis, joined the three Democrats Thursday for a quorum vote that placed Republicans very close to getting the numbers they need to push the bill forward. He said he is asking Republicans to give them more public hearings on the issue.

He also noted there is little Democrats can do to stop the measure.

"That's the quandary, and we have to decide: What we can we do?" DeLaney said. "We have limited resources and we have a limited number of votes."

National right-to-work advocates say they see Indiana as their best shot at passing the labor bill into law. Despite a slate of statehouse wins across the nation in 2010, Republicans have been unable to move the measure yet. They came closest in New Hampshire, but lawmakers could not find the votes to overturn Democratic Gov. John Lynch's veto.

Bauer and other Democrats would not say Thursday how long they planned to stall. Instead, Bauer said, they plan to hold public hearings on the proposal around the state as soon as this weekend. The first hearings could happen in Fort Wayne and Evansville.

The new law levies a fine of $1,000 per day against each lawmaker who sits out more than three days in a row. Republicans established the new penalties after Democrats left the state last year to block the right-to-work measure.

The House Democratic caucus meanwhile opened an account on the Democratic fundraising website ActBlue and sent out an appeal Wednesday on Facebook seeking donations of between $5 and $250. "The Indiana House Democrats NEED YOUR HELP! Please support our caucus as we fight another battle against the Republicans as they try to push RTW legislation through without listening to working Hoosiers," the Democrats wrote in their appeal.

Indiana Democratic Party spokeswoman Jennifer Wagner said her group did not pay for any of the penalties accrued last year and did not plan to pay any fines this year.

A lawsuit challenging fines from last year's session filed by Rep. Bill Crawford, D-Indianapolis, is still being weighed by a Marion County Superior Court judge.

---

Associated Press writer Tom Davies contributed to this report.

View the original article here

Fines pending for Ind. House Dems in labor battle (AP)

INDIANAPOLIS – Growing tension among defiant House Democrats facing stiff fines and sparse resources threatens to disrupt a no-show effort aimed at blocking a bill that would make Indiana the first state in more than a decade to enact right-to-work legislation.

Democrats stalled business Wednesday, the first day of the 2012 session, when they did not report to the House floor. They continued Thursday to block action on a right-to-work measure that would make Indiana the first state in more than a decade to bar private unions from collecting mandatory fees.

Inside the 40-member caucus, lawmakers are split over how much they can afford to keep stalling in order to block the bill. Some strode out of Thursday's caucus meeting saying that if they suffered through last year's five-week stay in Urbana, Ill., they can stand on principle now.

But others said new $1,000-a-day fines established by Republicans after last year's walkout have raised the stakes much higher than some can afford.

"Last year they were taking my bank account, this year they're taking my home," said Rep. David Cheatham, D-North Vernon. Cheatham was one of three Democrats who has joined Republicans in the House chamber each day. They say they oppose the right-to-work measure but don't agree with the stall tactics.

House Democratic Leader Patrick Bauer said Thursday that Republican House Speaker Brian Bosma told him in a private meeting he would begin fining Democrats on Friday.

"It's a significant issue. We think it's another assault against free speech," Bauer said as he walked into the House Democratic caucus meeting.

But Bosma said he had not decided whether to begin implementing the fines Friday and that no legal paperwork had been started.

"We're just counting on folks having some common sense and showing up for work eventually," Bosma said.

Rep. Ed DeLaney, D-Indianapolis, joined the three Democrats Thursday for a quorum vote that placed Republicans very close to getting the numbers they need to push the bill forward. He said he is asking Republicans to give them more public hearings on the issue.

He also noted there is little Democrats can do to stop the measure.

"That's the quandary, and we have to decide: What we can we do?" DeLaney said. "We have limited resources and we have a limited number of votes."

National right-to-work advocates say they see Indiana as their best shot at passing the labor bill into law. Despite a slate of statehouse wins across the nation in 2010, Republicans have been unable to move the measure yet. They came closest in New Hampshire, but lawmakers could not find the votes to overturn Democratic Gov. John Lynch's veto.

Bauer and other Democrats would not say Thursday how long they planned to stall. Instead, Bauer said, they plan to hold public hearings on the proposal around the state as soon as this weekend. The first hearings could happen in Fort Wayne and Evansville.

The new law levies a fine of $1,000 per day against each lawmaker who sits out more than three days in a row. Republicans established the new penalties after Democrats left the state last year to block the right-to-work measure.

The House Democratic caucus meanwhile opened an account on the Democratic fundraising website ActBlue and sent out an appeal Wednesday on Facebook seeking donations of between $5 and $250. "The Indiana House Democrats NEED YOUR HELP! Please support our caucus as we fight another battle against the Republicans as they try to push RTW legislation through without listening to working Hoosiers," the Democrats wrote in their appeal.

Indiana Democratic Party spokeswoman Jennifer Wagner said her group did not pay for any of the penalties accrued last year and did not plan to pay any fines this year.

A lawsuit challenging fines from last year's session filed by Rep. Bill Crawford, D-Indianapolis, is still being weighed by a Marion County Superior Court judge.

---

Associated Press writer Tom Davies contributed to this report.

View the original article here

While Republicans battle, Obama never far away (Reuters)

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – While Republican presidential candidates dominate headlines in Iowa with their caucus quest, President Barack Obama's Democrats have quietly built a massive organizational structure to round up voters and win the state in November's general election.

Thousands of Democratic volunteers have mobilized across Iowa to garner support for Obama, who used the state as his launching pad for a White House victory four years ago.

The president may need that organizational advantage.

Iowa is considered a battleground state that could swing to either side, and Republican candidates have been wooing voters one-on-one here for months if not years, generating media coverage and public attention for their cause.

Obama's volunteer army has worked to offset those headlines with a quiet, on-the-ground apparatus to get out the vote. They opened eight campaign offices across the state and made more than 350,000 calls to supporters, officials said.

"Come Wednesday morning, no matter who wins the Republican race, we will have the best organization," said Tyler Olson, 35, a state representative who is campaigning for Obama.

"And we'll continue to build on it while the Republican candidates go around the country and keep battling it out."

Part of building that structure involves luring Democrats on Tuesday to their Iowa caucuses, where voters typically express support for candidates and causes.

This year the Democratic candidate -- Obama -- is already chosen, but the campaign wants supporters to turn out anyway as a sign of organizational support.

"Obviously, the celebrity is on the Republican side, and people I've called today didn't even know the Democrats were even going to have a caucus," said Leni Stastny, 63, a retired insurance worker who was volunteering at a call center in Cedar Rapids.

"I've got a lot of people (on the phone) that were going. And some people hung up on me. And some people didn't want anything to do with it. And some people were really mad at Obama because of ... healthcare (reform)."

Republicans will seek to exploit that anger among Obama's supporters, organizational advantages or not.

"The president's team is boasting about its organization in Iowa but the reality is Obama's going to need it," said Kirsten Kukowski, spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.

"Iowa today is completely different than the state that launched him to the presidency four years ago. The so-called spark is gone in Iowa for President Obama."

GETTING ATTENTION

Obama's supporters are trying to get that spark back.

At the call center in Cedar Rapids, volunteers ranging from their late teens to their late sixties use cell phones to dial up long lists of Democrats in their neighborhoods. Obama campaign signs decorate the walls and windows, and a large statue of a donkey -- the symbol of the Democratic party -- greets visitors when they walk in.

"In essence, the Obama organization never left," said Peggy Whitworth, 69, a neighborhood "team leader" for the president in Iowa. "There's been this staying connected to people who were involved the first time around."

Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said the Iowa operation was representative of a nationwide grassroots organizing push, which it hopes will create a strategic advantage for the president in November.

"It's indicative of the type of unrivaled organizations we've built across the country," he said.

But some supporters worry that the strong Republican presence in Iowa has drowned out Obama's message.

"I haven't seen anything from Obama this year, it's all been Republican," said Wind Goodfriend, an author and Obama supporter, while walking her dogs in the town of Storm Lake.

"I think in some ways (the campaign is) probably waiting to decide what strategy based on who the Republican nominee is, but I'm not sure if it's a good or bad thing that no attention has gone to Obama," she said.

Whitworth said Obama's presence or visibility would increase.

"Some people see the presence as lots of bumper stickers and lots of yard signs. Yard signs don't vote, you know?" she said, noting that the "thrifty" Obama campaign has been careful about how much money it wants to spend on such things.

"We will continue to be more and more visible. We've certainly been visible in the last several weeks," she said.

Obama will address a group of Iowa caucus-goers from a hotel in Washington on Tuesday, adding his voice to a scene that will otherwise be drowned out by intrigue over who wins the first Republican nominating contest in the country.

The president will travel to Iowa to campaign in person, too, though his campaign declined to say when his first trip this year would take place.

He has a reason to come often: among five nationwide state-by-state scenarios that Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has designed for victory in 2012, three of them include winning Iowa.

(Editing by Alistair Bell and Jackie Frank)

View the original article here

Casualties mount in NJ employee benefits battle (AP)

By ANGELA DELLI SANTI, Associated Press Angela Delli Santi, Associated Press – Sat Jun 18, 12:30 pm ET

TRENTON, N.J. – The struggle to legislate higher pension and health benefits contributions for 500,000 public workers in New Jersey is shaking up the political status quo: Organized labor is attacking its traditional Democratic allies and pro-union Democrats are pitted against colleagues who plan to vote to limit collective bargaining.

The in-fighting, which shows no sign of letting up as the worker benefits bill moves through the Legislature, has diminished the unions' clout over the legislative process and driven a wedge through the state Democratic Party.

Among the discord, Republican Gov. Chris Christie appears to be the winner. Christie promised in his 2009 campaign to rein in public employee benefits as a way to help stabilize runaway property taxes. And his budget-slashing ways and "shared sacrifice" mantra have earned him the adoration of fiscal conservatives across the country.

"What you're seeing is reality settling in because if you're not going to raise taxes there's really no other way to do this," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter. "This is something Chris Christie has been talking about for a long time. It's a win for him whether Democrats like it or not."

Christie announced last week that an agreement on the bill had been struck with Democrats who control the Legislature and Republican minority leaders, who are generally in lock step with the governor's agenda. The deal requires sharply higher pension and health insurance contributions from teachers, police and firefighters and other public workers. It also limits collective bargaining over health care, which the unions and some Democrats staunchly oppose.

Labor went ahead with a scheduled protest Thursday, drawing 3,500 union workers to the state Capitol as the bill was heard for the first time by a Senate committee. After a contentious hearing, during which two dozen demonstrators were removed from the room and cited for disorderly conduct, the measure passed 9-4. Democrats were split 4-4.

Bob Master, political director of the Communications Workers of America, with 55,000 state and local members, called out Democrats who support the bill during his testimony.

"Real Democrats, not Chris Christie Democrats, would have put together their own plan and fight for it — a plan that addresses taxpayers' needs while respecting the fundamental rights of workers," he said to rousing applause. "Real Democrats would kill this bill because workers' rights are human rights."

Assemblyman John Wisniewski, who heads the Democratic State Committee, predicted limited long-term fallout.

"Ultimately, the party will be fine," Wisniewski said.

Similarly, Senate President Stephen Sweeney, an ironworker and a Democrat who is sponsoring the bill, said he didn't fear union retribution.

"If they want to put a Republican Legislature here, if they want to knock me out and put my opponent in my seat, they're going to do what they think is right," Sweeney said. "I'm not going to be here to be told what to do."

The effort to limit public employees' collective bargaining rights has gained support in other states. The GOP-led effort in Wisconsin calls for public workers to pay more for health and pension benefits beginning in late August unless a lawsuit by a coalition of unions is successful. The Massachusetts House passed a bill in late April stripping public-sector unions of the right to bargain over health care.

"No Legislature is more Democratic than Massachusetts," Duffy said. "If you can do it in Massachusetts, you can do it anywhere. Obviously, the unions went crazy."

No matter how angry the unions become with Sweeney or other Democrats who support the bill, they won't be able to exact much revenge in November, said Patrick Murray, a political scientist at Monmouth University. The primaries are over and the vast majority of districts are safe seats for the incumbent, he said.

The unions, particularly the cash-flush teachers union, have seen their influence erode with this governor after they refused to take a one-year pay freeze.

"With every loss the teachers' union suffers, they seem to compound it by attacking dissident Democrats," Murray said. "The traditional union-supporting wing of the party is put in a tough position. The public is starting to turn against the unions."

View the original article here