“Those are decisions they had to make on a personal level,” said Mr. Kissell, whose district outside Charlotte has gone from being mildly Republican in his first election in 2008 to 12 percentage points in favor of the opposition party now. “I really view this as being a job of serving the public. It’s not a campaign for me; it’s just doing our job. And if we do a good job, the results will go our way.” Republicans have a different view. They see North Carolina as the state that stands between Democrats and their dreams of retaking the House. Congressional redistricting, a decennial process that generally allows the party in legislative power in each state to draw new lines, has not created many opportunities for new seats for Republicans, as the party’s leaders once expected. But it has forced multiple House Democrats, viewing their odds in new districts as slim, into retirement. Many of those districts are now either in play or solidly Republican, making the climb for Democrats all that more onerous. On paper, Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to take back House control. In reality, the number is closer to 30 or even 35, since the party is likely not only to lose the seats of retiring Democrats in North Carolina, but also to face tougher odds in Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Indiana, Illinois and perhaps in Arizona, in the district once served by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords. Over all, 15 Democrats have announced their retirements from the House, compared with 10 Republicans. Seven Democrats and eight Republicans have also opted to run for other offices. Among the lot, Republicans leave far more safe seats behind than their Democratic counterparts. Of the seats where members are not seeking re-election, just two — one in Illinois and the other in California — have the potential to flip from Republican to Democrat, said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, while at least six seats held by Democrats are at risk of falling to Republicans, thanks to new lines. Among those are the North Carolina seats being vacated by Representatives Heath Shuler and Brad Miller. “Democrats are at a disadvantage because of these retirements,” Mr. Wasserman said. “Those retirements have hamstrung their requirements of picking up the 25 seats they need.” Between the retirements and new office seekers, members who have already been picked off in primary battles and the addition of new Congressional seats in some states via redistricting, 56 House seats are now left without incumbents, the highest number since 1992, Mr. Wasserman said. This has led both parties to study maps obsessively, looking for new places to eke out victory. Both will find them, but Democrats will find fewer on balance. “Democrats are feeling the Tar Heel blues in North Carolina and across the country, with Democrats choosing to retire rather than be saddled with the albatross of a failed Obama economic agenda,” said Andrea Bozek, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “These retirements serve as a cautionary sign of the troubles House Democrats face with Barack Obama on the ballot in November.” The retirements of Mr. Shuler and Mr. Miller, both veteran lawmakers who won in tricky political terrain, have been a blow to Democrats here in North Carolina, and Mr. Kissell and Representative Mike McIntyre have been pressed into districts with steep Republican advantages. All the Democrats running for re-election here know they are laboring in a state that Republicans feel is their Illinois — the one state where Democrats had a firm hand on redistricting and used it to cause Republicans potential harm — and often hear discomforting words like “bloodbath” describing their prospects here. But the party is not going down without a fight. Mr. McIntyre and Mr. Kissell are both well known in their districts, even the newer parts, in a state where voters are sometimes known to vote Republican for president and Democratic for the House. Mr. Obama’s re-election efforts will be in full force here — the Democratic National Convention will be in Charlotte — and all Democrats will benefit from his team’s get-out-the-vote efforts among base voters in a state he carried in 2008. “I am a firm believer and still have confidence in North Carolina voters,” said Hayden Rogers, the longtime chief of staff to Mr. Shuler who, after failing to persuade his boss to run again, decided to go for the seat himself. “I think they are looking for candidates who are rational, and they are less inclined to vote by political affiliation.” Finally, Democrats here are used to running uphill. “I am not going to sugarcoat it,” said Representative Steve Israel of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is always hard to lose a valued colleague, but we’re not going to concede North Carolina. Our incumbents survived the toughest climate in recent political history: 2010. They know how to win independents, they know how to win Republicans, they are battle tested, they are field ready, they did it before and they’ll do it again.” Richard Hudson, a former Congressional staff member, smells opportunity. He is running among a handful of others in the Republican primary in the Eighth District, where Republicans hope to pick off Mr. Kissell. “Part of the challenge is name identification,” Mr. Hudson conceded. “My name ID is 10 percent. Larry Kissell’s is 70 percent.” But, Mr. Hudson said, under redistricting, Mr. Kissell “does not match the district.” For instance, Mr. Hudson said, while Mr. Kissell voted against the health care law, he did not vote for repeal. As he walks around the district, Mr. Hudson applies the rules he has learned on the trail. Do not step on lawns; use the walkway. Never sneak up on someone mowing the grass. Do not be too pushy. “I’m aware of your face!” exclaimed one resident of Concord as he slipped into her yard. Mr. Hudson seemed pleased.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: April 19, 2012
An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of Representative Heath Shuler on second reference.
View the original article here
Dan Koeck for The New York TimesHeidi Heitkamp, the Democratic Senate candidate in North Dakota, visited Perry Benton of Minot while campaigning last week. MINOT, N.D. — Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic Senate candidate, called Leonard Rademacher a few weeks ago looking for his vote, but Mr. Rademacher, a 74-year-old retiree, was feeling ill, so Ms. Heitkamp called him back. 
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Representative Rick Berg, the Republican candidate, campaigning at a business in Fargo. “I said: ‘Heidi, save your breath. I’m voting for you,’ ” Mr. Rademacher recalled, marveling at her personal attention. “I don’t necessarily agree with her, but I trust her.” Gary Volk backed Ms. Heitkamp, a former state attorney general, after she sat for four hours on a slab of concrete next to what was once his house, listening to his struggles to recover from catastrophic flooding last year. Larry Windus’s mind was made up by an encounter with her opponent, Representative Rick Berg, a Republican, that ended with the candidate turning his back on him. “He’s not very personable,” said Mr. Windus, 55, a dishwasher at Charlie’s Main Street Cafe here. Senate Republicans considered the state in their column when Senator Kent Conrad, a veteran Democrat, announced his retirement last year. But with shoe leather, calibrated attacks and likability — an intangible that goes far in North Dakota — Ms. Heitkamp has made this a real fight. Though North Dakota is deeply conservative and is on no one’s presidential map as a question mark, this race could be one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 contests. And, like all close races this year, it could help decide control of the Senate. Even the National Republican Senatorial Committee conceded in its most recent attack ad here that Ms. Heitkamp is making headway. “Heidi Heitkamp: You might like her, but on the issues she’s wrong for North Dakota,” it said. The contest — the state’s first competitive one since 1986 and probably its nastiest in modern history — features two very different politicians with very different styles: the rumpled Democrat against the well-turned-out Republican, the longtime denizen of state government against the affluent businessman. Ms. Heitkamp hugs her way through a room. Mr. Berg approached a table of women in Fargo on Wednesday and then sheepishly backed off, saying: “We won’t bug you. We’ll just keep going.” Ms. Heitkamp sees the Senate as a platform to help North Dakotans, with air service, veterans’ health care, flood control, wind energy production and agricultural assistance. Mr. Berg wants North Dakota to help the nation. “We’ve gone from a state that has kind of been in the bottom half of the country in terms of our economics and business to really the envy of the nation,” he said at Butler Industries, a heavy-equipment dealer in Fargo that is booming along with North Dakota’s energy and agriculture sectors. “My passion is taking what we’ve done in North Dakota — if you will, the North Dakota way — and applying it nationally. If we do that, we can reignite America’s economic engine.” Ms. Heitkamp, surveying the slow rebuilding after the flooding in Minot, offered a different sentiment. “You stand here, and you say this should not be,” she said. In short, the campaign is a contest between North Dakota Nice and the national strategy of the Republican Party. “Everyone’s pretty likable,” Mr. Berg said with a shrug. “The issue is not about a personality contest. This whole thing kind of boils down to, do you want someone who’s going to fight against President Obama.” Tight Senate races in Arizona, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts and North Dakota all feature one candidate who must count on voters going one way in the presidential race and another down the ballot to prevail. But in North Dakota, voters have been splitting their tickets for decades. The seat up for grabs here has been in Democratic hands for 52 years. Only once in that span, in 1964, has the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. 