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Saturday, March 30, 2013
Democrats Aim to Turn Texas Shade of Blue
Friday, September 14, 2012
A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats
We continue our Presidential Geography series, a one-by-one examination of the peculiarities that drive the politics in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Here is a look at Texas. FiveThirtyEight spoke with James R. Henson, the director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin; Robert D. Miller, the chairman of the Public Law Group at Locke Lord L.L.P.; and Steve H. Murdock, a professor in the department of sociology at Rice University in Houston.
“It’s only a matter of time.”
For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, for example, were somehow able to carry Texas and its 38 electoral votes, the electoral math would become very difficult for Mitt Romney.
A Democratic-leaning Texas may seem like a dream, but for years such a shift has appeared almost inevitable. The Hispanic population in Texas (38 percent) is the second largest in the nation, and it is growing quickly. The African-American population (12 percent) has kept pace with the state’s overall growth. And non-Hispanic whites have been shrinking as a share of the population.

In fact, sometime after 2000, non-Hispanic whites became a minority in the state. They now make up just 45 percent of the population, making Texas the only majority minority state that reliably votes Republican.
Yet, for all the talk of a politically competitive state, the Republican grip on Texas has never loosened.
“We’ve had this discussion for 10 years now, and nothing has changed,” Mr. Miller said.
“There’s been a ‘Waiting for Godot’ nature in terms of Democrats and Latinos here,” Mr. Henson said.
All 29 statewide elective offices are held by Republicans, and Texas Democrats have been left with a series of if-onlys. If only the local party were better organized. If only national Democrats invested more money in the state. If only we could get a charismatic Hispanic candidate on the ballot. And, the most fundamental “if only” of them all: if only Hispanic turnout were stronger.
Poor turnout has dulled the impact of the state’s Hispanic population at the ballot box. Hispanics may make up 38 percent of the population, but they have never exceeded 20 percent of the electorate in presidential elections, according to exit polls.
“Latino turnout is even lower here than it is in a lot of other places,” Mr. Henson said.
Hispanic turnout is creeping up incrementally, but the non-Hispanic white vote in Texas has become overwhelmingly Republican.


The political landscape in Texas is relatively straightforward. The Democratic strongholds are limited to the major cities — Austin, El Paso, Dallas and to a lesser extent Houston and San Antonio — and the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.
Republicans are dominant everywhere else, from suburbs to small towns to ranches and farms.
Each of the main cities has a different feel and contributes something unique to the state’s economy. Houston is a center for health care and energy jobs. Austin, the capital, has a flourishing music scene and is a major center for technology start-ups. Dallas has a large African-American community (25 percent) and a little bit of everything economically.
Outside of the cities, Texas has several distinct regions. East Texas is much like northern Louisiana. It is mostly rural, religious and conservative. The Panhandle is also deeply conservative, but feels more like the Great Plains, Mr. Henson said, and includes a streak of libertarianism.

West Central Texas around Midland and Odessa is the chief oil-producing region. Over all, Texas is among the nation’s top energy-producing states, particularly in oil, natural gas and wind. The state’s booming energy industries have helped its economy weather the Great Recession relatively well.
The Bellwether: Tarrant County
The Dallas-Fort Worth area is home to over six million people, and the two cities are often grouped together. But Tarrant County, which is home to Fort Worth, and Dallas County have separate identities. Dallas is more diverse than Fort Worth, a former cattle town that now revolves around industries like defense.
Non-Hispanic whites are still a slim majority in Tarrant County, which helps make it a much better statewide bellwether than Dallas County. Tarrant County exactly matched the statewide vote in 2008, and was just 1 percentage point more Republican in both 2004 and 2000.
The Bottom Line
There is little doubt that Mr. Romney will carry Texas. He is a 99 percent favorite in the state, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast.
But the long-term trend seems equally clear. Despite poor turnout, the Hispanic share of the electorate has steadily climbed, from 7 percent in 1984 to 20 percent in 2008, according to exit polls.
At the same time, the non-Hispanic white vote has consistently fallen. In 1984 it was 78 percent; by 2008 it was 63 percent.
The larger question is not if Texas will become more competitive, but when, both Mr. Henson and Mr. Miller said. And that largely depends on whether Democrats can improve turnout among Hispanics. They have a few things working against them.
First, the Texas Democratic Party has been out of power for a long time, with few elections to truly contest. “The party in the state has really atrophied,” Mr. Henson said.
Second, Hispanic culture in Texas has so far not placed a high value on participating in the electoral process, Mr. Miller said.
Even if Texas Hispanics do start punching their weight, the Republicans could make efforts to win their support. Partisan allegiances among Hispanics could become more balanced.
Those obstacles notwithstanding, there is no doubt that as the minority population in Texas has grown, so too has the potential for the state to become less firmly Republican. And there are already signs of a possible future: Mayor Julián Castro of San Antonio, a rising star in Democratic politics, gave the keynote address at the national convention in Charlotte, N.C.
But that Democratic comeback — whether led by Mr. Castro or someone else — may still be years away. In the meantime, Democrats will have to continue to wait.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Immigration Policy at Issue in Primary for Sheriff in Travis County, Texas
Monday, April 9, 2012
Republican Ambitions for Statewide Office Break Loose in Texas
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Democrats Shun Kesha Rogers in Texas Congressional Race
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Supreme Court throws out Texas election maps (Reuters)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Supreme Court handed Texas Republicans a partial victory in a partisan fight over election redistricting that has erupted after a huge increase in the state's Hispanic population.
Throwing out a set of election maps that favored Democrats and minorities, the justices on Friday sent the case back to a lower court, forcing further review of a matter with a limited timetable for resolution as 2012 elections are fast approaching.
In its first ruling on political boundary-drawing based on the 2010 U.S. Census, the high court unanimously rejected interim election maps that had been drawn up by federal judges in San Antonio.
The court said the judges' maps did not sufficiently take into account an earlier set of maps that were drawn up by the Texas state legislature that favored Republicans.
Under the high court's ruling, the Texas judges must redraw the maps for primary contests set for April 3 that will decide party candidates for congressional and state legislature elections in November.
The case is typical of redistricting fights that unfold in states across the country every 10 years after a national census. In this one, protecting the voting rights of millions of minorities and substantial political power are at stake.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, a Republican, said, "The Supreme Court's swift decision will allow Texas to move forward with elections as soon as possible under maps that are lawful."
The case is being closely watched because it could help decide whether Republicans or Democrats gain as many as four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in November. The Texas delegation now has 23 Republicans and nine Democrats.
MEXICAN-AMERICANS GROUP WEIGHS IN
A civil rights group representing Hispanics, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, said the ruling reaffirmed Texas' obligation to comply with the voting rights law. The group said it looked forward to further proceedings in San Antonio to secure fair interim maps.
Abbott had appealed to the Supreme Court, saying the lower court had overstepped its authority, and arguing that the judges should have deferred to maps drawn by elected lawmakers.
Those maps favor Republican candidates, but have been challenged for violating the voting rights of Hispanics and other minorities.
The Supreme Court ruled that the federal district court judges appeared to have unnecessarily ignored the state's plans in drawing certain districts and that those maps can at least be used as a starting point.
"Some aspects of the district court's plans seem to pay adequate attention to the state's policies, others do not and the propriety of still others is unclear," the court held in its narrow opinion limited to the unique facts of the Texas dispute.
Redrawing the Texas districts has been a major political and legal battle. The state's population went up by more than 20 percent, or 4.2 million people, over the past decade, with Hispanics accounting for 2.8 million of the increase.
FOUR NEW DISTRICTS FORMED
After the 2010 Census, Texas got four new congressional seats, giving it 36. The legislature's plan, signed by Texas Governor Rick Perry, who dropped out of the Republican presidential race on Thursday, created only one new heavily Hispanic district.
The Supreme Court, in the 11-page, unsigned opinion, said the judges, in coming up with new maps, must be careful not to incorporate any legal defects from the legislature's plan.
The interim maps drawn by the judges in Texas were designed to remain in place until a separate court in Washington, D.C., could decide whether the Texas state plan should be approved or rejected under the federal voting rights law.
A trial in that case is under way. That case and a different pending legal challenge in San Antonio are expected to determine the final maps to be used in Texas in future years.
The Obama administration, the state Democratic Party and minority groups have challenged parts or all of the state's redistricting plan for violating the voting rights law, and said the judicially drawn one should be used on an interim basis.
Justice Clarence Thomas issued a brief opinion agreeing with the judgment, but adding that he would have gone further. He said the legislature's plans have not been found to violate any law and should be used for the upcoming elections.
The Supreme Court cases are Perry v. Perez, No 11-713; Perry v. Davis, No. 11-714, and Perry v. Perez, No. 11-715.
(Reporting By James Vicini; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Vicki Allen)
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Texas asks top court to stop congressional map (Reuters)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Texas asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday to stop implementation of an interim Texas map for congressional districts that was crafted by a panel of federal judges and could favor minorities and Democrats in 2012 elections.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott made the emergency request in opposing the court-drawn congressional redistricting plan. Abbott, a Republican, asked the Supreme Court on Monday to suspend maps created by the judges for 2012 state Legislature elections.
Abbott argued the federal district court panel in San Antonio erred by refusing to defer to the Legislature's plan, and that the wholesale revisions of the maps were unjustified.
The maps, which could lead to greater representation for minorities and Democrats, were drafted earlier this month after minority groups challenged the original plans adopted by the Republican-dominated state Legislature.
Rewriting the Texas districts has become a major political and legal issue because of sharp growth over the past decade in the state's population.
Texas received four new congressional seats after the 2010 U.S. census, largely because of the rapidly growing Hispanic population. The state Legislature's plan created only one new heavily Hispanic district.
The U.S. Justice Department, which determines whether new maps in some states comply with federal civil rights laws, opposed the state's congressional redistricting plan.
Abbott said the court-drawn plan dramatically changed more than half of the 150 districts in the Texas House of Representatives, altered five of 31 state Senate districts and changed all 36 congressional districts from the state's plan.
Candidates for the 2012 elections must file by December 15, 2011. The primary elections are scheduled for March 6.
"Legal, delayed elections are preferable to legally flawed, timely elections," Abbott said in asking the Supreme Court to put on hold the primary elections if necessary.
The interim maps drawn by the judges were designed to remain in place until the legal battle over the redistricting plans has been resolved.
A separate three-judge panel in Washington is expected to hold a trial in considering whether to approve or reject the redistricting plans.
The Supreme Court cases are Perry v. Perez, No 11-A520, Perry v. Davis, No. 11-A521, and Perry v. Perez, No. 11-A536.
(Reporting by James Vicini; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Texas AG blasts court's redistricting maps (AP)
AUSTIN, Texas – Texas' attorney general sharply criticized a federal court Friday over its proposed maps for state House and Senate districts in the 2012 election, saying the judges overstepped their bounds.
The San Antonio-based federal court released the proposed redistricting maps late Thursday and gave those involved in the case until noon Friday to comment. Minority groups have filed a legal challenge to the Republican-drawn maps, saying they are discriminatory. The court's maps are intended to be an interim solution until the case is resolved after the 2012 elections.
Maps for the House and Senate released Thursday restore many of the minority districts — where Democrats hold the seats — to their previous shapes. Republican lawmakers have denied their maps were intended to minimize minority representation, and say they merely reflect the GOP majority in Texas.
In his filing, Attorney General Gregg Abbot said the court went too far in redrawing the Legislature's maps.
"A court's job is to apply the law, not to make policy," Abbott wrote in his objection to the proposed House map. "A federal court lacks the constitutional authority to interfere with the expressed will of the state Legislature unless it is compelled to remedy a specific identifiable violation of law."
Abbott argued that there is no violation of law. Included in his court filing were letters and emails from 18 Republican lawmakers and two Democrats objecting to portions of the court-drawn House map.
The objections by the Republican attorney general and lawmakers followed praise by many Democrats on Thursday night. But two Democrats, Representatives Senfronia Thompson and Harold Dutton, objected to the court's version of their House Districts 141 and 142 in Harris County
"The traditional communities of interest, which have existed since 1972, are destroyed under the court's plan," Dutton said. Thompson said her district was fundamentally changed by removing a key neighborhood from it.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, also denounced the court's state Senate maps. As the leader of the Senate, he supervised the creation of the district map for that chamber.
"The Senate's map was not hastily crafted, but was the product of careful balancing and intense negotiation by the senators," Dewhurst said in a letter Friday. "The court's proposed interim map completely disregards the careful work of the members of the Senate."
Since 1965, Texas has been subject to the Voting Rights Act, which requires states with a history of racial discrimination to first gain approval from the Department of Justice or a federal court before instituting new political districts. A federal court in Washington rejected Abbott's request to give approval to the legislative and congressional maps drawn by the Legislature, and the Department of Justice has called the method for drafting the maps seriously flawed.
The courts have played a role in drafting every legislative or congressional redistricting map in Texas since 1970.