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Friday, March 8, 2013

Massachusetts Primary Battles Heat Up

Two Democratic congressmen will square off in the April 30 primary; Republicans have a three-way race. The winners will face each other in a special election scheduled for June 25.

All five candidates submitted at least 10,000 signatures on Wednesday to earn a spot on their respective primary ballots. The signatures still have to be verified, but the field is almost certainly set.

The surprise entry on the Republican side was Michael J. Sullivan, a former United States attorney and former acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. He managed to collect more than 23,000 signatures in 12 days without the aid of hired hands, which he called a “groundswell of support” for his candidacy.

The two other Republicans are State Representative Daniel B. Winslow and Gabriel E. Gomez, a businessman and former member of the Navy SEALs, both of whom used paid workers to help gather the requisite signatures.

The Republicans had to scramble for signatures in a brief time frame, made all the more narrow by the announcement just four weeks ago by former Senator Scott P. Brown that he would not seek the seat. Mr. Brown would have had no competition in a primary. Until he bowed out, the field was frozen.

The Democratic primary has been set for some time. A lengthy list of possible candidates — including the actor Ben Affleck and Edward M. Kennedy Jr. — evaporated after Representative Edward J. Markey, the liberal dean of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, indicated early on that he would run. The Democratic establishment quickly coalesced around Mr. Markey in an attempt to stave off challengers who could drain the party of money and resources in a primary.

But Representative Stephen F. Lynch, a former ironworker who is the most conservative member of the delegation, entered the race anyway, and has been whipping up support among the unions. He and Mr. Markey have agreed to a series of six debates in the roughly 10 weeks before the primary.

If Mr. Markey wins, it seems likely that he will prevail in June, if only because Massachusetts is so heavily Democratic. Mr. Markey supports abortion rights and same-sex marriage and has sought action to stop global warming.

If Mr. Lynch is the winner, the political calculus will change. Some of this positions — he opposed President Obama’s health care plan and has been against abortion rights — put him out of sync with many in his party. Since entering the race, he has softened his stance against abortion but still calls himself “pro-life.” At one time he opposed gay marriage but changed his view many years ago. He supports a ban on assault weapons; he said he voted against such a ban in Massachusetts once several years ago because it was too weak, which reflected the view of the gun lobby, but he supported the federal ban.

“If Lynch wins the primary, it gets dicier” for the Democrats to win the general election, said Jeffrey M. Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University. “Some Democrats might sit it out.”

All three Republican contenders are starting out as relatively obscure and underfunded, Mr. Berry noted. He said they would have to spend money to raise their profiles in the primary, which could leave them short of cash by June.

Mr. Sullivan opposes abortion rights and same-sex marriage; Mr. Winslow could have more appeal to Democrats since he supports both. Mr. Gomez has yet to articulate his positions on numerous issues.

While the Democratic National Committee is backing Mr. Markey, the Republican National Committee has not committed to backing the Republican nominee.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: March 1, 2013

An article on Thursday about a primary election in Massachusetts for the Senate seat relinquished by John Kerry misstated the timing of a decision by Representative Stephen F. Lynch, one of the Democratic contenders, to drop his opposition to same-sex marriage. He changed his position several years ago; he has not done so “since entering the race.” The article also overstated the degree to which Mr. Lynch has altered his positions since deciding to run. He has shifted on one — not “some” — issues. (He has softened his opposition to abortion, though he still calls himself “pro-life.”)


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