Win or lose, immigration risk for GOP

As comprehensive immigration reform continues to gain momentum, many Republicans are hopeful that passing a bill that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants will draw more Hispanics into the party.

Younger voters offer potential gains for gop

According to a June poll by Latino Decisions, 31percent of Latinos said they would be willing to vote Republican if Republicans took a lead role in passing reforms that include a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

The Republican Party also has the potential to make gains with younger Latino voters, said Gary Segura, a political-science professor at Stanford University and a principal at the polling firm.

Younger voters are less likely to have party affiliations and more likely to be open to efforts to reach out to them than older voters, he said.

About 50,000 Latino citizens in the U.S. reach voting age every month, Segura said.

But it's a big gamble for Republicans, who took a beating in November, when President Barack Obama won re-election with more than 70percent of the Latino vote and congressional candidates saw similar results.

If the effort fails, Latinos will likely blame Republicans, many of whom -- especially in the House -- remain opposed to any sort of legalization program for illegal immigrants. That result would further tarnish the party's image among Latino voters, pushing them in even greater numbers to the Democratic Party, analysts say.

If the effort succeeds, some Republicans fear it could eventually have the same effect. The reforms being debated propose giving undocumented immigrants a chance to eventually legalize their status and citizenship, which could create millions of new Democratic voters, because Latinos tend to vote Democratic.

There are an estimated 11million illegal immigrants in the U.S.

According to the Pew Hispanic Center, as of March 2010, Mexicans made up about 58percent of the unauthorized immigrant population, with an estimated 6.5million people. Other nations in Latin America accounted for 23percent of unauthorized immigrants, or 2.6million people. Asia accounted for 11percent, or about 1.3million people, and Europe and Canada accounted for 4 percent, or 500,000 people. African countries and other nations represented about 3percent, or 400,000 people.

Analysts and Republican backers of reform are urging skeptics to take the long view, saying that passing immigration reform is necessary for the Republican Party to have any hope of attracting more support from the fast-growing Latino electorate, which made up 10percent of the voters in November's presidential election and includes huge numbers of young U.S.-born Latinos who are turning 18 -- voting age -- every day.

They say it is unlikely that the Republican Party will split the Latino vote with Democrats any time soon.

But passing an immigration-reform bill that includes a pathway to citizenship could help burnish the party's brand with Latinos turned off by the tough stance some Republicans have taken on immigration, helping draw at least a larger share of the Latino vote.

"I am under no illusion -- and I don't think any of my colleagues are on the Republican side -- that when we pass this, even if we are out front leading the parade, that we are going to get 50percent of the Hispanic vote next time," said Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. Flake, a longtime supporter of immigration reform, is among the so-called Gang of Eight senators leading the way on reform.

Passing an immigration bill would help Republicans move beyond the immigration issue, Flake and other Republican leaders say, allowing the party to begin reaching out to Latinos on other issues, such as jobs and the economy. Those are issues Republicans believe resonate with Latino voters but have been drowned out by angry rhetoric on immigration from some members of the party.

"It's tough to talk to them about those issues when they don't think you like them," Flake said during a recent meeting with The Arizona Republic and 12 News. "And rightly or wrongly, fair or unfair, I think that's been the case over the past couple of cycles. They have a view that we don't like them very much, and I do think that has to change."

It's not just Latinos who have been put off by the Republicans embrace of tough immigration policies, Flake said.

"I don't see this just as a Hispanic problem," Flake said. "There are a lot of Republicans who have left the party or don't vote for the Republican on the ticket because they think, 'Can't we have a party or somebody running for office that has a realistic view on some things?' And I think on immigration we have not had a realistic view. I don't think self-deportation was a realistic view. So, it goes beyond the Hispanic vote."

During last year's presidential campaign, Mitt Romney said during a GOP debate in Tampa that he favored "self-deportation" over providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Obama played up the comment on the campaign trail, and it prompted Ana Navarro, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, to say on Twitter on Election Night: "Mitt Romney self-deported himself from the White House."

Principles for reform

Last week, the Senate Judiciary Committee held the first immigration hearing in the chamber since a bipartisan group of senators released a blueprint for overhauling the nation's immigration system. The principles call for creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants once the nation's borders have been deemed secured, among other reforms.

In addition to Flake, the group includes three key Republicans -- Sens. John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Marco Rubio of Florida -- all of whom will play key roles in persuading other Republicans to reach a compromise with Democrats over the highly contentious issue.

The Democrats in the group are Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, Charles Schumer of New York and Michael Bennet of Colorado.

Over the weekend, USA Today obtained a draft of a White House immigration proposal that would allow illegal immigrants to become legal permanent residents within eight years.

The plan also would provide for more security funding and require business owners to check the immigration status of new hires.

In addition, illegal immigrants could apply for a newly created "Lawful Prospective Immigrant" visa.

White House spokesman Clark Stevens told USA Today that the administration supports bipartisan efforts on immigration reform in Congress, but some read the leaked legislation as intended to pressure lawmakers into moving more quickly.

Rubio was critical of the administration's draft proposal, saying it repeats the failures of past legislation and would be "dead on arrival" in Congress.

Mark Garces, a Florida lawyer who is a spokesman for the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, a group that works to increase the number of Hispanic Republicans, said passing a bill would help prevent Latino voters from flocking to the Democratic Party.

In the past, he said, Democrats have successfully used immigration as a political "wedge issue" to divide the Republican Party and draw Latino voters away from the GOP, he said. That would be harder to do if Republicans helped pass a compromise bill with Democrats, he said.

Garces said he favors the approach proposed by the Gang of Eight, which calls for giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship as long as the border has been deemed secured, they pay fines and other penalties, and they don't receive permanent residency before others who have been waiting for years to come to the U.S. legally.

Latinos a political force

Latino voters are a powerful political force.

They made up 10percent of the electorate in the November presidential election.

And the number of eligible Latino voters is projected to skyrocket from 23.7million in 2012 to more than 40million in 2030, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

Latino voters come from diverse backgrounds, but they tend to vote largely Democratic, said Joe Garcia, director of Arizona State University's Morrison Institute Latino Public Policy Center.

Even so, there are several issues important to Latino voters that "line up well" with Republicans, Garcia said.

Those issues include "family, faith, patriotism and small-business entrepreneurship," in addition to the economy and jobs, he said.

"When you get the harsh immigration-hardliner issue off the table, the GOP thinks it matches very nicely with some other key elements of what Latino voters are looking for," Garcia said. "They don't need to get all the Latino votes, they just need to get a larger chunk in order to make a difference in the elections."

The 27percent of the Latino vote that Romney received was the lowest for a Republican presidential candidate since Bob Dole received 21percent in 1996 against President Bill Clinton, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

Yet while some Republican leaders have begun calling for immigration reforms, others continue to advocate for harsh immigration policies that Latino voters interpret as being anti-Hispanic, said Gary Segura, a political-science professor at Stanford University and a principal at Latino Decisions, a polling firm.

Mixed feelings

Rudy Peña, 60, a plumber who lives in Tolleson, is on the board of directors of the Arizona Republican Latino Association.

Although Peña is a "lifelong" Democrat, he usually votes Republican and voted for Romney in November.

He is adamantly opposed to Republicans supporting immigration reform for the sake of drawing more Latino voters to the Republican Party. "What it amounts to is pandering, and Latinos recognize that is pandering," Peña said.

Peña would rather see the Republican Party push for border security first as well as greater enforcement of existing immigration laws while reaching out to Latino voters on other issues such as jobs and the economy.

He has mixed feelings about giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship.

On one hand, working in the construction industry, he said he has seen firsthand "how hard they work," Peña said. On the other, he believes giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship would reward people who entered unlawfully and would be unfair to others who have tried to come to the U.S. legally.

"It really does shortchange the 5million or so who are going through the process the right way," he said. "It can't just be a question of the 11million (undocumented immigrants) who are here. What happens to the 5million who are waiting?"

Attracting more Latino voters to the Republican Party won't be easy, Segura said.

The Republican Party's image already has been badly damaged with Latino voters because of the tough stances some Republicans have taken on immigration.

"I don't hear a GOP message on immigration. I hear some senators who have reached a less-hostile position," Segura said. "But the noise coming out of the House of Representatives today and throughout the entire period has not been encouraging by any stretch. So, I don't think there is a unified Republican message on this by any measure."

In the past, Latinos tended to join the Republican Party as they gained affluence, Segura said.

But that support has been eroded because immigration tends to be a deeply personal issue for Latino voters. In a June poll by Latino Decisions, 60percent of Latino voters surveyed said they have a relative who is undocumented or know someone who is undocumented.

"The issue for the Republicans is not whether doing immigration reform is going to save them," Segura said. "It's whether not doing immigration reform is going to doom them forever."

USA Today contributed to this article.

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