GOP's Jesse Kelly won't make a third bid for Giffords' seat

The race for Congress in the district formerly represented by Gabrielle Giffords will look far different this fall than it did just a few short weeks ago, when one of her top aides and a former rival battled for the right to serve out the remaining six months of her term.

On Thursday, two days after losing Tuesday's special election to Giffords aide Ron Barber, Republican Jesse Kelly announced that he will drop his third bid for Congress.

His decision was not unexpected: Despite wide name recognition and heavy financial support from the Republican National Congressional Committee, Kelly lost the election by a disappointing 7 points.

It was his second loss in the district in less than two years. In 2010, he came within about 4,000 votes of defeating Giffords, who resigned in January to focus on recovering from a gunshot wound suffered in a 2011 assassination attempt.

Still, it changes the dynamic in the campaign for the two-year term in the southern Arizona district.

Kelly's departure sets up retired Air Force pilot Martha McSally, a Republican rising star, for a strong shot at the seat. She turned heads earlier this year when she entered the special-election primary as a virtual unknown and came in second.

Unlike Kelly -- a strident "tea party" Republican with strong positions on Medicare and Social Security that Barber was able to attack in campaign messages -- McSally touts herself as a Republican who can appeal to independents.

Phoenix Republican strategist Bert Coleman said there are high hopes for her candidacy.

"It's a fresh face, some new ideas, without a heated primary heading into November. They'll have plenty of time to raise money, get their message out, and it's not such a rush," said Coleman, of Coleman Dahm & Associates. "I suspect he (Jesse Kelly) had donors telling him they weren't, for the fourth time, going to donate to his campaign."

Kelly, a 30-year-old construction-project manager and Marine veteran, said the results of the 8th Congressional District election led him to withdraw and "seek other opportunities."

Barber, 66, won by about 13,000 votes in the swing district, despite Republicans having a 26,000-voter registration edge. He will be sworn in early next week and serve six months.

"I would like to thank our Lord and savior Jesus Christ, my wife, Aubrey, and our supporters for their unwavering commitment to the values that make America great," Kelly said in a written statement. "I will forever be thankful to our generous supporters and volunteers."

Barber campaign officials did not respond to requests for comment.

If Kelly had continued, he likely would have faced an uphill battle in the newly drawn 2nd Congressional District for the two-year term. As a result of once-a-decade redistricting, the district does not contain areas where Kelly drew some of his strongest support, such as Marana, Saddlebrooke and Oro Valley, and the Republican voter advantage is virtually erased.

The old 8th Congressional District was 36 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic, and 31 percent other.

The new 2nd Congressional District is much more balanced: 34 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican and 31 percent independent/other. An analysis from TheArizona Republic of voting results shows that if the current map boundaries for the 2nd District had been in place in 2010, Giffords would have beaten Kelly by 13,821 votes instead of by 4,156.

McSally, the first woman in the Air Force to fly in combat, created a buzz in political circles this year with her combination of fiery passion and measured rhetoric, though she struggled to answer some questions on domestic policy.

Pima County employee Mark Koskiniemi, her challenger in the upcoming GOP primary, is not considered a strong candidate. He failed to get on the ballot in the special election, has little name recognition and political experience and is not expected by political insiders to compete financially.

By contrast, Barber, who will have incumbent status and is expected to have strong backing from the Democratic Party as well as Giffords, will face tough competition in the Democratic primary from state Rep. Matt Heinz. Heinz is a two-term legislator and hospital physician who announced ambitions for the seat months ago and reaffirmed Thursday his commitment to run.

"This last term, this was Gabby's seat. ? She should have some significant say in who finishes out the two years that she earned," said Heinz, who dropped out of the special election in support of Barber. "But when it comes to the fall ? it's a new district, with different primary and general electorates. We are choosing someone to be an advocate for southern Arizona probably for a decade or more."

McSally spokesman Sam Stone said the Democratic matchup is welcome news.

"We're not going to be caught in a trench fight in the primary," Stone said. "Ron Barber and Matt Heinz are going to be fighting it out."

The primary is Aug. 28. The general election is Nov. 6.

He argued that McSally can win the district, despite the loss of its slight Republican edge, because she has a broader appeal than Kelly.

Even some Republicans said it was time for a fresh face. "I am pretty sure Republicans are going to want to consider a different candidate for this seat in November," Jason Whitman, policy chairman for the Young Republican National Federation, said on Twitter on election night. "(I) don't think Kelly was an optimal candidate."

But nonpartisan political handicappers give the edge to Democrats. The "Rothenberg Political Report" labels the race as "leaning" to Democrats, while the "Cook Political Report" calls the seat "likely Democratic."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Republicans' loss in southern Arizona "spells trouble" for them across the state.

In a memo after Barber's election, DCCC officials predicted the party will hold onto the 2nd District and pick up two additional seats in Arizona, the 1st District with Ann Kirkpatrick and the 9th District with a slate of three strong Democrats. Officials noted each is more friendly to Democrats than the seat Barber won.

Democratic political consultant Robbie Sherwood, Arizona director for Strategies 360, discounted the chances of both Heinz and McSally unseating Barber. "Ron Barber has absolutely proved himself. There's no question about his ability as a candidate," he said.

Barber will benefit from the campaign organization he has in place, Sherwood said, and volunteers and donors will rally around him.

Sherwood doubted, in light of Barber's win and the district's demographic changes, that the National Republican Congressional Committee would extend much help to McSally. "They invested very heavily in Jesse Kelly and came up empty. I don't see them pouring money into what looks to them like a rathole."

Republic reporter Matt Dempsey contributed to this article.

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