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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Wisconsin recall vote is telling, but of what?

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's decisive victory in Tuesday's recall election is a blow to the state's Democratic Party and its union allies and a spur to officials in other states who want to challenge the pension benefits of public-employee workers.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks to supporters at his victory party on Tuesday in Waukesha, Wis. By Morry Gash, AP

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks to supporters at his victory party on Tuesday in Waukesha, Wis.

By Morry Gash, AP

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks to supporters at his victory party on Tuesday in Waukesha, Wis.

However, even top officials of Mitt Romney's presidential campaign caution against over-reading its meaning for November's presidential elections, saying it demonstrates that the Badger State is competitive but not that Republicans can count on it.

On the other hand, neither can Democrats — though President Obama now leads in polling there.

There is "no doubt" that Romney is the underdog but the state is "very competitive," Walker said on ABC Wednesday, fresh from his victory over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. He said the country is "hungry for leaders who are willing to stand up and say it like it is and tell people what they are going to do and then mean it."

White House spokesman Jay Carney dismissed November implications from Tuesday's vote. "I certainly wouldn't read much into yesterday's result beyond its effect on who's occupying the governor's seat today in Wisconsin," he told reporters aboard Air Force One Obama headed for San Francisco.

Surveys of voters as they left polling places show a tighter race in Wisconsin for Obama this year than his easy 56%-42% win over Republican John McCain in 2008, but he still leads Romney by 51%-44% and is preferred over him on handling the economy.

Still, Wisconsin is one of several once-solidly Democratic states — Pennsylvania and Michigan are others — that are viewed as battlegrounds this time. All three voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections.

"I do think it's in play, and that's telling," Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to the Romney campaign, said today at a breakfast with reporters hosted by Bloomberg News. But he said the outcome reflected state issues and candidates and wasn't "a proxy fight" for Obama and Romney.

"It would be foolish for any Democrat to take these states for granted," says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. (He was a strategist for a state Senate candidate in Wisconsin whose victory Tuesday tips control of the state Senate to the Democrats.) "But there's not a lot of vulnerability here for President Obama. The same exit polls that had Barrett losing by six points show Obama ahead of Romney by similar margins."

Beyond the presidential race, the results show a willingness by voters even in Wisconsin, the first state to provide collective bargaining rights to public employees, to curb the cost of their benefits. Voters by 52%-47% approved of recent changes in state law that limited the ability of public workers to collectively bargain over pay and benefits.

And in California on Tuesday, voters in San Diego and San Jose overwhelmingly approved initiatives that would cut pension benefits for municipal employees as part of an effort to balance city budgets that are in the red.

Walker's victory "will have a huge impact on how a lot of states deal with their looming insolvency," predicts Republican strategist Steve Schmidt. If the governor had lost, it would have had "a huge freezing effect" on efforts to curb public employee benefits.

Veteran Democratic strategist Robert Shrum agrees that there is "obviously a real sentiment" to curb retirement benefits for public workers. "People have a sense the pension benefits are very generous and need to be scaled back or public employees need to contribute more," he says.

Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, sought to put the best spin possible on the outcome.

"Last night's results were not what we had hoped for, but this was not the end of the story but rather the beginning," he told reporters Wednesday. "We knew a recall election would be tough, and we knew that we would be outspent. In the end, though, the best funded politician in state history spent more than $50 million to hold onto his office, but he could not hold onto a majority in the state senate."

One more lesson from Tuesday: Voters are leery of replaying elections. Six in 10 Wisconsin voters said recalls were appropriate only in cases of official misconduct. Those voters supported Walker by more than 2-1.

Only three governors have faced recalls in U.S. history. Walker was the first to survive.

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