ANALYSIS | Wisconsin Democrats are attempting to oust Gov. Scott Walker as result of the messy debate over unions earlier this year. They are emboldened by recent recall elections and an Ohio referendum, but history shows it won't be so easy.
The Dairy State was treated to a fight over proposed new government powers to curtail union rights. We saw the spectacle of Democrat politicians fleeing the state to avoid a vote, Republicans going the extra mile to drag them back, and protesters disrupting the state capitol in a preview of "Occupy Wall Street." The GOP got its legislative victory, but Democrats struck back. Two Republican legislators (Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper) were recalled in special elections. In other states, two more Republicans were booted in recall elections in November, while an anti-union measure was slammed by Ohio voters.
Democrats hope to bag their biggest prize: Scott Walker himself. The recall movement kicks off less than a week after the November election. Polls show several Wisconsin Democrats (Russ Feingold, Tom Barrett) would beat Walker in an election. But Democrats may well fall short.
Hopper and Kapanke may have gone down to defeat, as did Russell Pearce and Paul Scott, but not all recall elections are successful. Analysis of the National Conference of State Legislatures data reveals that such a strategy has only worked 17 times against state legislators. In 15 cases, it didn't. This includes several GOP state legislators in Wisconsin this year (and a few Democrats in the state, as Republicans retaliated unsuccessfully).
Recall supporters point out that other politicians have been ousted, but that list includes only two governors: Republican Lynn Frazier in North Dakota in 1921 and Gray Davis in California in 2003. Many other attempts to dump governors, mayors, and municipal politicians have fizzled.
On many occasions, petitioners have tried to oust Federal officials (mostly for political reasons rather than any real malfeasance) without success, as the Constitution has no such provision (though the Founding Fathers kicked around the idea).
Recalls bids have a spotty record at best. When enough petitions are gathered, the ousting rate is barely 50 percent, and that doesn't include failed court challenges or cases where organizers couldn't muster the minimum number of petitions. And while Walker may have higher disapproval ratings and less popularity than Feingold and Barrett, a slight majority doesn't support a recall at this time. So even though Democrats are on a hot streak, they have their work cut out for them in a recall effort against Walker.
