Beyond Democrat and Republican: A Closer Look at Third-Party Campaigns (ContributorNetwork)

There has been plenty of recent speculation in the media about a possible third-party run for president by current Republican candidate Ron Paul. Whether Paul, or any other candidate, will make a third-party play against President Barack Obama and the Republican nominee this November remains to be seen. In the meantime let's look at some of the more creditable third-party presidential runs of the past one hundred years:

* Theodore Roosevelt (1912) -- A century ago the old "Bull Moose" founded the Progressive Party after a rift with his hand-picked Republican successor William Howard Taft. Roosevelt was upset with Taft for not continuing his progressive platform after he had left office. Roosevelt was so fired up that the former president decided to enter the 1912 race as the candidate for the new Progressive Party. Predictably Roosevelt split the vote and handed the election to Woodrow Wilson. Still, TR's 27 percent of the popular vote remains the high-water mark for third-party candidates still today.

* Strom Thurman (1948) -- Aside from being considered by many historians as the biggest upset in presidential election history -- incumbent Democrat Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger Thomas Dewey -- this election was famous for Thurman's State's Rights (or Dixiecrat) Party. The Dixiecrats were white Southern Democrats who deplored the moves that the Truman Administration were making toward desegregating the South. They formed their own party and chose Thurman to run against Truman and Dewey. Thurman won four Southern states and 39 electoral votes and managed to get 2.4 percent of the popular vote.

* Ross Perot (1992) -- The Texas pro-business billionaire decided to throw his hat into the ring as an Independent candidate in the 1992 election. Concerns about the state of the economy, and a general distrust-as always-of Washington insiders, helped fuel a surge of support for his candidacy. In May, six months before the election, Perot was actually polling ahead of the incumbent Republican George Bush and Democratic challenger Bill Clinton. In the end Perot captured nearly 20 million votes and almost 19 percent of the electorate.

* Ralph Nader (2000) -- This was Nader's third run for president and, while his ultimate vote count was modest (about 2.8 million total votes and 2.73 percent of the electorate) his presence on the ballot might have proven to be monumental. That's because Nader took part in one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. Many have suggested that, had Nader not been in the race. Gore, who actually won the popular vote, would have captured enough electoral votes to win the White House.

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Democrats suggest third-party candidate viable in 2012 (Daily Caller)

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says new survey data shows voters are increasingly receptive to a third-party presidential candidate, who would likely draw more votes from the Republicans than President Barack Obama.

“The third-party candidate, with this data … might take more from the Republicans,” partly because he or she would draw disproportionate support from white voters without a college a degree, said Greenberg, a founder of the Quinlan Rosner polling firm.

His July survey of 1,481 likely voters showed that 58 percent of Republican-leaning voters and 70 percent of independents would consider backing a third-party candidate. The poll showed that 38 percent of Republicans and 25 percent of independents would reject the notion, Greenberg said in Friday briefing to reporters.

There “is clearly a space for such a candidate to come in” the 2012 race, Greenberg asserted. “More voters, particularly blue-collar voters, think a third party is an option.” (RELATED: Nader rules out another run but ‘almost 100 percent’ certain Obama will face primary challenge)

The prospect of a third-party candidate drew immediate interest from Democrats. The polling data suggesting voter receptivity to such a candidacy are “striking numbers,” said Democratic activist Will Marshall.

Greenberg is a Democrat. He worked as pollster for President Bill Clinton, and his wife is Connecticut Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro. The new study was done under a contract for the Democratic-affiliated Democracy Corps and the Women’s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund groups.

Greenberg has been doing polls for Democracy Corps for a decade and has “released all the data … people are free to judge the credibility,” he told The Daily Caller. The survey is posted at the firm’s website.

The poll’s results “are not very pretty results … the political class as whole gets hit, the Republicans more,” he said.

In numerous recent elections, Democratic activists have backed third-party candidates in the hope of draining votes from insurgent conservatives. For example, a Democrat, Jack Davis, ran as a third-party candidate in the May 24 race for New York’s 26th congressional district. Davis got 9 percent of the vote, helping the Democrat candidate edge the GOP nominee 47 percent to 42 percent.

In the 1992 presidential election, Ross Perot ran as a third-party candidate and won 19 percent of the vote. Pollsters argue over whether he helped Bill Clinton, who won election with 43 percent of the vote, compared to the 37.5 percent won by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Perot’s voters had a history of voting twice as much for Republican candidates, including President Ronald Reagan, rather than for Democratic candidates, Greenberg said.

If Perot’s votes had been divided 2 to 1 between Bush and Clinton, Bush would have won 50.1 percent of the vote, and Clinton would have won 49.3 percent of the vote. However, because swing voters usually break against an incumbent, especially in a tough economy, more of his voters would likely have voted for Clinton and given him the presidency if Perot had withdrawn.

Going into the 2012 election, Obama’s coalition is more solid that the GOP’s, Greenberg said. For example, only 39 percent of Democrats would consider a third-party candidate, he said. But, he continued, Obama “is stuck at 48 percent [approval]… all these numbers are heading towards a close difficult election.”

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