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The election that took place on Nov. 8, 2011 featured a number of statewide initiatives that have national import. Two of the results would seem to favor Democrats while two other results favored Republicans.
What the meaning these initiatives have for the 2012 election, if any, will be the subject of considerable debate for the next few weeks. Both sides of the political aisle find reason for comfort and for concern.
Ohio Issue 2: Collective Bargaining Rights for Public Sector Unions
Ohio voters rejected the Issue 2 ballot initiative, a result that had the effect of repealing a law passed in the Ohio legislature that restricted the rights of public sector employees to collectively bargain. Labor unions poured in tens of millions of dollars and many thousands of man hours to defeat the initiative. They succeeded by about a two to one margin. Conservatives warn, however, that this means that either taxes will have to be raised or services cut and employees laid off.
Ohio Issue 3: The Individual Insurance Mandate Under Obamacare
Proving that health care reform, also known as Obamacare, remains universally unpopular, voters in Ohio voted to pass Issue 3, which would exempt Ohioans from having to comply with the individual insurance mandate. Unfortunately if Obamacare remains law and if the Supreme Court upholds the individual mandate, the results of the measure are largely moot. It would, however, prevent Ohio from enacting its own version of Romneycare, passed in Massachusetts, which also has an individual mandate.
Mississippi Initiative 26: The Personhood Amendment
This ballot initiative would have defined a human being a legal person from the moment of conception, effectively outlawing all abortions, even in the case of rape or incest. This initiative proved to be too much, even for conservative, Bible belt Mississippi. The fear of unintended consequences, including the possibility that a woman suffering a miscarriage might be charged with involuntary manslaughter, influenced Mississippi voters to turn down the amendment.
Mississippi Initiative 31: Eminent Domain Reform
Even since the Supreme Court's Kelo decision, which permitted state and local governments to seize private property and to give that property to another private entity under eminent domain, states and localities have been scrambling to pass laws to tighten restrictions on eminent domain. Mississippi is the latest state to do so, passing a ballot initiative that largely prohibits state and local governments from taking private property and giving it to another private entity, even if it can claim that a public purpose, usually higher tax revenues, is being facilitated. It is another victory for property rights.
In a new Gallup poll released Friday, a majority of registered voters say they would vote for a Democrat over a Republican if the 2012 congressional elections were held today.
The poll found 51 percent of voters leaning towards voting for a Democrat in next fall’s congressional election, with 44 percent saying they would vote Republican. Six percent were undecided, or would vote for a third party.
The Hill reports that although both major political parties were hurt by the debt ceiling debate, which ultimately resulted in a decision by Standard and Poor’s to downgrade the United States’ credit rating, the poll suggests Republicans will suffer more in the eyes of voters.
Incumbent members of Congress are also in trouble. Only 24 percent of voters say their representatives deserve to be reelected, a Gallup poll released earlier in the week found. That’s the lowest number Gallup has ever recorded for this question.
Congressional approval ratings are also at an all-time low. A New York Times/CBS News poll released last week found 82 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Only 14 percent said Congress was doing a good job.
The Gallup poll released Friday also spells bad news for tea party candidates. Forty-two percent of registered voters (and 38 percent of independent voters) said they were less likely to vote for a candidate associated with the tea party movement. Meanwhile, 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote for tea party- affiliated candidate..
But Democrats shouldn’t pop the champagne corks just yet. Though Democrats win the generic ballot, their “favorable” and “unfavorable” public opinion numbers are both at 47 percent.
The poll does bring some good news for President Obama, who has trailed generic Republican candidates for two straight months. Friday’s Gallup poll has Obama beating a nameless Republican by six percentage points, 46 percent to 39.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Gallup asked the questions after the recent debt ceiling battle subsided.
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