After a Disappointing Jobs Report, Romney Attacks Obama

Michael Appleton for The New York TimesMitt Romney questioned President Obama’s jobs policies at a campaign event on Friday in Orange City, Iowa.

SIOUX CITY, Iowa – Seizing on a disappointing jobs report, Mitt Romney questioned on Friday whether President Obama “knows what he’s doing” when it came to fixing the economy.

“There’s almost nothing the president has done in the past three and a half, four years that gives the American people confidence that he knows what he’s doing when it comes to jobs and the economy,” Mr. Romney told reporters as he stopped here for a campaign rally.

In Mr. Romney’s first remarks since the Democratic National Convention wrapped up on Thursday night, the Republican nominee said Mr. Obama had offered little more than empty promises. The employment report released on Friday morning showed that the economy added 96,000 jobs in August, down from a revised figure of 141,000 in July and well below the 125,000 level economists had been expecting.

“What is he going to do to get this economy going?” Mr. Romney said. “And all he said last night was the same as what he said four years ago — which, by the way, he made a lot of promises four years ago. Can you think of any of those promises that was met? I mean, he was going to create jobs. We haven’t. Lower unemployment? He hasn’t. Rising take-home pay? It’s gone down.”

His appearance in Iowa came as the Romney campaign was ramping up activity on another front. It announced on Friday a major advertising campaign in eight swing states. The commercials – 15 in all – are specifically tailored to resonate with voters in each of those states.

In Florida, for example, people will see commercials about falling real estate values and high foreclosure rates. In Colorado, where the military and defense contractors are large employers, people will hear how the president’s budget cuts could cost 20,000 military jobs there.

And here in Iowa, they will hear how “excessive government regulations are crushing small businesses and family farms.”

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Romney Calls Reid's Tax Claims a Diversion From Jobs Report

6:26 p.m. | An updated version of this article can be found here.

NORTH LAS VEGAS, Nev. — Mitt Romney on Friday said that he had paid “a lot of taxes” every year and accused the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, of falsely claiming that he had not — saying the senator did so as a tactic to draw attention away from lackluster employment and economic numbers under President Obama.

Mr. Romney also suggested that either the White House or Obama campaign officials could be behind what he characterized as false accounts of him not paying taxes for years.

“Harry Reid really has to put up or shut up,” Mr. Romney said. “So Harry, who are your sources? Let’s have Harry explain who that is.”

Mr. Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said in a statement on Thursday that “I was told by an extremely credible source that Romney has not paid taxes for 10 years.” But the senator has provided no evidence to back up the assertion.

Mr. Romney has said he is likely to pay a total of $6.2 million in taxes on $45 million in income over the two tax years of 2010 and 2011; he has released his 2010 return and says he will release his 2011 return when it is completed.

But he declined again on Friday to disclose more than those two years, a refusal that has drawn attacks from Democrats — who argue he must be hiding something — and criticism from many Republicans who fear his unwillingness to adhere to a more detailed and customary tax disclosure is distracting from the Romney campaign’s message.

Mr. Romney said that Mr. Reid’s attacks and the call for more of his tax returns was really an effort to divert attention away from poor jobs numbers and the unemployment rate, which has ticked up to 8.3 percent, according to a new government report on Friday.

“By the way Harry, I understand what you are trying to do here,” Mr. Romney said. “You are trying to deflect the fact that jobs numbers are bad, that Americans are out of work, and you’re trying to throw anything up on the screen that will grab attention away from the fact that the policies of the White House haven’t worked to put Americans to work, and the policies of the Senate haven’t even got a budget in place.”

“Now let me also say categorically: I have paid taxes every year, and a lot of taxes, a lot of taxes,” Mr. Romney added. “So Harry is simply wrong, and that’s why I’m so anxious for him to give us the names of the people who have put this forward.”

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised to hear the names are people from the White House or the Obama campaign, or who knows where they are coming from,” he said.

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July Jobs Report Likely to Preserve Status Quo

The government reported that 163,000 payroll jobs were created in July. But the unemployment rate — which is calculated through a separate survey — ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent.

The payrolls number taken alone is a decent one; it beat the market’s expectations of about 100,000 jobs being created.

But it is important to take the number in context. Forecasts of the payrolls numbers are quite inaccurate; they miss, on average, by 68,000 jobs in one direction or another. In this case, the miss was to the upside — and better for job-seekers than the other way around.

Still, it is hard to calculate the number of jobs in the economy at any given time, let alone to forecast it accurately. That is why, as Jonathan Bernstein advised on Thursday, and as I suggested on TimesCast, we ought to have a fairly high threshold for what qualifies as a newsworthy jobs report.

Mr. Bernstein argued that any payrolls number between 50,000 and 150,000 jobs was not likely to have much effect politically. The actual gain of 163,000 jobs sits right on the brink of that.

So it is worth looking toward tiebreakers. For instance, were there substantial revisions to the previous numbers? In this case, they were a wash; the May jobs number was revised up, but the June figure was revised down.

And you can certainly look at the unemployment rate. The survey from which those numbers are calculated is subject to more statistical noise than the payrolls numbers, but that does not mean that it is meaningless. In this case, the unemployment numbers were poor.

So I think this report ought to mostly reinforce pre-existing impressions about the economy: that the recovery is slow, but that the nation is probably not on the verge of a double-dip recession.

Politically, the status quo appears to favor President Obama. If the election were held today, he would have a 77 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to our forecast model’s “now-cast,” although the victory would almost certainly be by a slim margin — possibly even a victory in the Electoral College that is not reflected in the national popular vote.

By November, Mr. Obama is less certain to win, since there is more uncertainty about the economy, and other factors come into play. Our model figures that there is about a 70 percent chance that he does so.

The July jobs numbers might reduce that uncertainty slightly. Whatever impressions Americans had about the economy are likely to be reinforced by the report; Democrats will cite the relatively favorable payrolls numbers, and Republicans will trumpet the increase in the unemployment rate. There are just three more jobs reports between now and the election.

The number is favorable for Mr. Obama in the sense that no news qualifies as good news for him if he is ahead right now. But the report is not a game-changer, economically or politically.

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Report: Black Dems lose clout in southern capitols (AP)

ATLANTA – Black lawmakers have lost clout in Southern state capitols as their overwhelming allegiance to the Democratic Party has left them without power in increasingly GOP-controlled state legislatures.

The nonpartisan Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies says in a report issued Friday that despite Barack Obama's election as president, black voters and elected officials in the South have less influence now than at any time since the civil rights era.

"Since conservative whites control all the power in the region, they are enacting legislation both neglectful of the needs of African Americans and other communities of color ..." writes senior research associate David Bositis in a paper titled "Resegregation in Southern Politics?" The Washington-based think tank conducts research and policy analysis, particularly on issues that affect blacks and people of color.

Bositis points out state legislatures are increasingly divided along racial lines — making Republican synonymous with whites and Democrat and black interchangeable. According to the report, a majority of Democrats in both chambers in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi are black. In half of the southern state legislative chambers, blacks are a majority or near-majority of Democratic members.

"This begs the question, `what is the purpose of having a legislative black caucus when the majority of members in your legislative body are black?'" the report says.

It's a phenomenon unique to the South, as a majority of black state lawmakers serving in legislative bodies outside of the region belong to the party in charge, the report says.

"That's one of the costs of putting all your political capital in a single party," said Emory University professor Merle Black, who is currently researching the rise of the Republican party in the South. "When the Democrats were in power, there was a period there when black lawmakers were very influential."

That era is over, at least for now, Black said.

"Unless the Democrats can work out some kind of deal with the Republicans, the issues that African Americans want to get passed along would have to have enough support among Republicans to pass them," he said.

Kansas state Rep. Barbara Ballard, who chairs the state House Democratic Caucus and is president of the National Black Caucus of State Legislators, said Southern black lawmakers who find themselves on the margins of power need to get more creative to remain effective.

"When you have smaller numbers, you work harder and you work smarter," said Ballard, who has served in the Kansas House for 19 years. "We still have to represent our constituents. Just because someone else is running the agenda, if we weren't there, they would totally control everything."

Ballard said neither black lawmakers nor their constituents can afford to look at the odds and throw up their hands.

"Look at history," she said. "When African Americans were not able to get what they wanted, they found another avenue to increase the numbers and they started putting the pressure on. We need to look at a wider definition of clout and influence outside of the statehouse."

Chris Jankowski, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said that without question, the Voting Rights Act as applied to redistricting has led to the consolidation of a key voting bloc in the Democratic Party: African Americans.

"The effect of that is, in the South, to weaken the ability in the party to compete in other districts," Jankowski said. "It does have an unintended, but very clear impact on Republican prospects."

Georgia Democratic state Rep. Tyrone Brooks remembers a different dynamic at the state Capitol. First elected in 1980, Brooks has mostly served under Democratic rule at the General Assembly, including on the influential appropriations committee, where he helped write the budget.

Based on his seniority, he could get things done, bringing his issues to the floor and getting them passed and signed into the law.

"Being in the minority, it's not pleasant," Brooks said. "The perception across the state is the Democratic Party is the party of black folk. When you have a racially polarized body politic, race becomes a major factor. Where we are today is a step backwards."

In recent years, Republicans have taken over Georgia state government and now control the governor's office and both chambers of the Legislature.

Today, Brooks no longer serves on the appropriations committee. Despite serving in the Georgia House for more than three decades, he said he has a hard time getting buy-in from his Republican colleagues — many of whom he has known and worked alongside for years.

"You have to work extremely hard if you're a Democrat to get anything done," Brooks said.

White Democrats are fewer and far between in Southern statehouses. More than a dozen state lawmakers in five states defected to the GOP right after the 2010 midterm elections, underscoring dissatisfaction with Obama and the Democrats amid high unemployment and following a contentious fight over health care reform.

Before the 1994 midterm elections, nearly all black lawmakers served in the majority. Even prior to the 2010 midterm elections, about half of black state legislators in the South were in the majority, the report says. Now, only about 5 percent are in the majority.

And of the 318 black state legislators in the South, only three are Republican, according to the center.

"Virtually all black elected officials in the region are outsiders looking in," the report claims.

The trend has strengthened the GOP's hand in redistricting fights. Black Democrats have accused majority-Republicans in several Southern states of reducing their overall influence by packing more African-American voters than needed into black-majority districts drawn to comply with the Voting Rights Act. Several of these battles are shifting to the courts.

The report goes on to assert that Republican-controlled Southern legislatures are both failing to address the needs of blacks in areas such as health care and education, and leading "an assault on voting rights through photo identification laws and other means." Republicans reject the charges, saying they are only trying to maintain the integrity of the voting process.

Jankowski said Southern Democrats are hurt less by racially polarized politics than by the social disparity between the region and national party.

"The Southern states, both culturally and on other issues, are more conservative than the rest of the country," Jankowski said. "It is hard as a Democrat, whether you're an African American or not, to defend the national Democratic Party in Southern communities at times."

Jankowski added that Republican governors and majorities in state houses are pro-right-to-work, pro-growth and for lower taxes — positions they believe will serve as a rising tide that lifts all boats.

"They believe ... the best way to get their economies going is to pursue those policies that apply equally to everyone," he said. "I would not concede the premise that one group of people are not being addressed and others are."

Experts say reduced black influence in Southern state capitols is not irreversible. Demographic patterns suggest an increasing number of potential minority voters such as Latinos, which could work to the advantage of African American lawmakers.

"Republicans don't have an appeal beyond whites," Black said. "The voting electorates in these states are becoming more diverse, and the share of the white voting population is a declining majority. That's a factor that could potentially help Democrats."

Brooks agreed, but said that the black electorate will also be a key to reversing the trend.

"There's really not full participation by those we're trying to help," Brooks said. "When you talk about the loss of power and where we are today, a lot of that translates to the lack of participation by the very people who need our help the most. In so many ways, they've become their own worst enemy."

___

Online:

http://www.jointcenter.org/research/resegregation-in-southern-politics

http://www.nbcsl.org/

http://www.rslc.com

Follow Errin Haines on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/emarvelous

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Colorado Dems Hope to Follow New York's Gay Marriage Success (U.S. News & World Report)

Lakewood, COLO.--The gay marriage law that passed in New York late Friday night has its origins in Colorado politics--and Centennial State political implications for 2012. Colorado software entrepreneur and gay rights activist Tim Gill's team was a major player in the effort, an effort that should continue in Colorado next year on both the state legislative and electoral fronts.

While the New York state Senate became the first-ever Republican-led state legislative body to recognize same-sex relationships, Colorado Republican leadership killed a Gill-backed civil unions bill on a party-line vote in a House committee this year.

[See a slide show of the 10 cities with the most same-sex couples.]

Both the state House and Senate sponsors have said they will re-introduce the legislation, and as Senate sponsor state Sen. Pat Steadman, a Democrat from Denver, tells me, "[Republicans'] moves next year will be very interesting to watch. We're at that point in the chess game when each little move becomes make or break. The end game is in sight."

I asked Steadman why New York Republicans succeeded where Colorado Republicans did not, and his answer was simple. "New York Republican leadership is much smarter than we have here." House sponsor state Rep. Mark Ferrandino, also a Democrat from Denver, was equally pointed.

"In New York, their leadership is willing to stand up against fringe," he said. "In Colorado, it's a small minority in their party that they're listening to, and they weren't willing to stand up to them last session." [Check out a roundup of GOP political cartoons.]

The day after the bill died, Gill wrote in the Denver Post:

Unfortunately, the same old divisive politics that brought me into the political sphere 17 years ago reared its ugly head again this past week. The leadership of the Colorado House suffers from a complete lack of vision. ... This legislature will have another chance in the next year to right this wrong for all those who choose to live, work, and raise a family in our great state. I sincerely hope to see civil unions debated on the House floor. And if not, we will have an opportunity to change the legislature, because in the end, Colorado deserves better.

And Steadman and Ferrandino agree that there will be political fallout if Republicans dismiss a civil unions bill in the 2012 legislature. "I definitely think there are political implications; just look at polling data," Ferrandino says. "So many people support civil unions that it shows their leadership is not in touch with mainstream Colorado voters."

Steadman is equally blunt. "I think it should be readily apparent. How much more out of step could they be?"

As he's proven in Colorado and New York, Gill's philosophy is that political money is most efficiently and effectively spent at the state level. A 2007 profile in the Atlantic noted, "Gill and Trimpa decided to eschew national races in favor of state and local ones, which could be influenced in large batches and for much less money. Most antigay measures, they discovered, originate in state legislatures."

Or in Colorado's case, a pro-gay rights civil unions bill that could pose serious problems for Republicans in 2012.

--See a slide show of the 10 cities with the most same-sex couples.

--Check out a roundup of GOP political cartoons.

--See a slide show of the 10 cities with the most union members.

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