Conservative Groups Spend Heavily in Senate Races

Already, they have committed at least $17 million to television commercials in more than a dozen states from Florida to Hawaii, in most cases dwarfing what their Democratic opponents have spent. Their plans call for an effort that will exceed $100 million by Election Day, strategists for these groups said, far surpassing their efforts in 2010, a high-water mark for outside money in politics.

In the weeks ahead, they will pour more resources into states like Nebraska and Missouri, which have already seen some of the heaviest spending, in addition to intensifying their campaigns in New Mexico, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Their immediate objective: use hard-hitting television ads to tether Democratic candidates to the budget deficit, lackluster economic growth and the perception that government has become too intrusive and unmanageable.

Except for the candidate, and the phone number that flashes on screen at the end, the ads follow a strikingly similar script.

Senator Fill-in-the-Blank supports business-smothering regulations and will raise your taxes. He also added trillions to the deficit by voting for “Obamacare” and will cut your Medicare.

In Missouri, Senator Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, has been buffeted with more than $2.2 million in television ads from Crossroads GPS, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a group called the 60 Plus Association, which bills itself as a right-leaning AARP and uses Pat Boone as its pitch man. “Call Senator McCaskill,” Mr. Boone says in one ad. “Tell her unaccountable bureaucrats should never have the power to deny you the care you deserve.”

Ms. McCaskill and her allies have countered with ads of their own but are being outspent by more than 3 to 1, data from Kantar Media show.

In Nebraska, Bob Kerrey has been mocked as a liberal Manhattan interloper in a trio of TV commercials from Americans for Prosperity. In one, set to music that vaguely recalls Bernard Herrmann’s score from “Psycho,” a narrator warns, “Bob Kerry is moving back to Nebraska, and he wants to bring his liberal agenda back to our Nebraska home.” Stern-faced citizens object. “Not in my house,” says one man. “Not here,” says another.

Mr. Kerrey, a former Nebraska governor and senator who left office a dozen years ago to run the New School in Manhattan, has responded with nearly half a million dollars in commercials of his own. That is a considerable expense for his fledgling campaign, and almost as much as the amount of cash he had on hand at the end of March.

The conservative groups’ strategy makes clear that they — traditional Republican allies like the Chamber of Commerce along with newer players like the Karl Rove-backed Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity, a Koch brothers-affiliated venture, among others — intend to be even more aggressive this year than they were in 2010, when they greatly expanded the role of outside money in Congressional elections.

By forcing their opponents to respond with expensive ad campaigns of their own, these conservative groups are achieving at least part of their goal. But their strategy is not without its risks, namely that they are dumping money into advertising long before voters are really paying attention.

The focus on the Senate reflects conservative hopes for a sweep of the White House and both branches of Congress, and frustration with the Senate’s role in blocking legislation passed by the Republican-controlled House, especially on the budget and fiscal issues that have come to dominate the debate in Washington.

“You could argue that what happens in the Senate and the House matters more on a day-to-day basis, on key legislative matters, than an administration does,” said Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity.

The Chamber of Commerce, which, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, spent more than $30 million on Congressional races in 2010, said it will commit “measurably more” this year to House and Senate campaigns in what officials called the most significant political effort in its 100-year history.

“We’re going to shape the environment now instead of waiting for the environment that comes to us later,” said Rob Engstrom, national political director for the Chamber of Commerce. For over a year, the group has enlisted strategists to comb through candidates’ voting records and public statements, looking for material useful in an ad.

“We’re prepared to quickly engage if developments warrant,” he added.

Crossroads plans to spend about $60 million on Senate races alone and an additional $30 million on House races. That would more than double what it and its sister organization, American Crossroads, spent in 2010. These sums will come atop the nearly $18 million in air time that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved for the fall.

Americans for Prosperity, which has been an important supporter of the Tea Party movement, and others promoting various aspects of the conservative agenda, like Club for Growth, a group that promotes fiscally conservative and free-market principles, have each vowed to spend millions more.

Democrats acknowledge that they are outgunned, but expect the Republicans’ financing advantage to dissipate as the general election nears. Money being spent on ads now, Democratic strategists argue, is being wasted on voters who are not paying close attention to their local races. And it will leave less money for Republicans and their allied groups come the fall, they contend.

“Even Karl Rove’s money becomes finite at some point,” said Matt Canter, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who added that Democratic incumbents had plenty of cash on hand that would go further because candidates, unlike outside groups, get the lowest possible advertising rates. “We will not be outspent in practice as much as it might appear.”

In addition to lacking the large donors who have provided much of the money for outside conservative groups, Democrats find themselves at a further disadvantage because President Obama’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee do not plan to finance the Congressional campaign committees this year.

Democrats are trying to turn their underdog status into a political benefit by using it to raise money and portray their Republican opponents as beholden to their big contributors. Indeed, Ms. McCaskill features the attack ads being run against her in an ad of her own that rails against the “special interests” behind the commercials.

“What they’re doing to Claire McCaskill is nothing compared to what their special interest agenda will do to you,” the narrator says, going down a list that includes tax breaks for the wealthy, “ending Medicare as we know it,” and trade policies that benefit China over the United States. “Claire says, ‘Make it in Missouri,’ ” the announcer adds, pronouncing it the way many locals do: Muh-zhur-UH.

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In House Races, Redistricting a Hurdle for New York Democrats

The Democratic Party suddenly faces the prospect of having to play defense in pockets around the state this fall, as Congressional districts once considered safe for the party have become more vulnerable, partly as a result of new Congressional maps put in place by a federal court.

For months, national Democrats had been counting on gains in New York to help the party pick up a few of the 25 additional seats it needs to reclaim the House. The situation developing in New York could undermine that strategy. But top Democrats insist that their incumbents are in strong positions and that the party will pick up seats, particularly since President Obama is at the top of the ticket and remains popular throughout the state.

House Republicans face their own challenges in the state, as top Democrats in Washington point out. Several Republican incumbents — most of them freshmen who took office in 2010 with the Tea Party support — must defend their seats against potentially strong Democratic challengers.

The Democrats

Representative Kathy Hochul, District 27

A first-term Democrat, Ms. Hochul is considered among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in New York. She achieved national prominence last year when she won a special election in a conservative district in the Buffalo area by turning the race into a referendum on a Republican proposal in Washington to overhaul Medicare.

The new Congressional map has made her district even more Republican, making her re-election prospects more difficult. Two Republicans are seeking the nomination to run against her: Chris Collins, the former Erie County executive; and David Bellavia, a veteran of the Iraq war and a Tea Party activist.

Representative Louise Slaughter, District 25

After serving nearly 25 years in Congress, Ms. Slaughter may be facing the most difficult challenge of her career. As a result of the new Congressional map, her district was consolidated into Monroe County, becoming slightly more Republican but still predominantly Democratic.

Now, Maggie A. Brooks, the popular Republican county executive in Monroe, has entered the race to unseat Ms. Slaughter, buoyed by the fact that her political base is in the heart of the congresswoman’s new district.

Representative Bill Owens, District 21

Mr. Owens, who represents this conservative district in northernmost upstate New York, initially won his seat in a 2009 special election and was re-elected the next year. In both instances, Mr. Owens won with less than 50 percent of the vote. And in both instances, his candidacy was helped by a third-party Conservative candidate who undercut the Republicans.

But that is unlikely to happen this year because Republicans and Conservatives appear to be coalescing behind Matthew A. Doheny, the Republican candidate who lost to Mr. Owens in 2010. Another Republican, Kellie Greene, is also seeking to run against Mr. Owens.

Representative Timothy H. Bishop, District 1

On Long Island, Mr. Bishop, a five-term Democrat, is girding for a rematch with Randy Altschuler, a successful Republican businessman who nearly defeated the congressman in 2010. Mr. Altschuler is an aggressive campaigner, having spent $2.9 million of his own money in 2010.

Mr. Altschuler got a lift recently when he received the endorsement of the Independence Party. That could make a difference, Republicans say, given that Mr. Altschuler lost to Mr. Bishop by a slim margin in the moderate district, which stretches across the eastern half of Long Island.

The Republicans

Representative Ann Marie Buerkle, District 24

Ms. Buerkle, a Republican, who won her seat in the Syracuse area in a big upset in 2010, is hoping to prove that her election was no fluke. But Republicans and Democrats alike say Ms. Buerkle, a Tea Party favorite, faces an uphill battle in the new district, which analysts say leans Democratic.

Ms. Buerkle is going up against the man she defeated in 2010, Dan Maffei, an aggressive campaigner who has already amassed about as much money as she has.

Representative Chris Gibson, District 19

The new Congressional map severely undercut Mr. Gibson, a first-term Republican who won in 2010. Mr. Gibson’s district went from being a Republican-leaning district to a swing district that Democrats believe they have a strong shot at picking up.

Mr. Gibson is facing a challenge by a political newcomer, Julian Schriebman, a former chairman of the Ulster County Democratic Party who is running on his experience as a federal prosecutor who tried terrorists.

Representative Nan Hayworth, District 18

In 2010, Ms. Hayworth, a first-term Republican from the suburbs north of New York City, won her seat with strong Tea Party support against a Democratic incumbent who fellow Democrats say underestimated her. But Democrats and independent analysts say she is vulnerable this year.

No fewer than four Democrats have lined up to run against her, including Sean Patrick Maloney, an aide to former Gov. Eliot Spitzer; Tom Wilson, the mayor of Tuxedo Park; Rich Becker, a town councilman in Cortlandt; and Matt Alexander, the mayor of Wappingers Falls.

Representative Michael G. Grimm, District 11

Mr. Grimm, a Republican who captured his seat in 2010 with strong support from the Tea Party, has found himself enmeshed in a controversy that Democrats say makes him vulnerable.

Mr. Grimm, who represents a district that includes Staten Island and part of western Brooklyn, has been facing intense scrutiny after The New York Times reported in January that his lead fund-raiser in the 2010 campaign was under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Some donors said Mr. Grimm and the fund-raiser indicated that they would accept illegal donations. Republicans have stood behind Mr. Grimm, who has denied any wrongdoing.

Democrats, in the meantime, are getting behind Mark Murphy, the son of a former congressman, after failing to recruit Michael E. McMahon, the candidate who lost to Mr. Grimm in 2010.

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Democrats Playing Defense In 2012 Governors' Races - Huffington Post

WASHINGTON -- Democrats are playing defense in governors' races in 2012, protecting eight seats – some in conservative states like North Carolina and Montana – while Republicans are safeguarding just four. But one of those is in Wisconsin, where a recall effort against incumbent Scott Walker has emerged as a national test of the confrontational measures many GOP governors have taken to balance state budgets.

Both parties agree the landscape is quite different than in 2010, where 37 states elected governors at the height of the economic downturn and amid roiling voter anger over government spending and debt. Republicans netted 6 new seats that year, including important presidential bellwether states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. There are currently 29 Republican governors, 20 Democrats and 1 independent.

This year, just 8 seats are up for grabs against a backdrop of a slowly improving national economy and a presidential contest that will draw a broader range of voters. Republicans are casting the contests as a referendum on their own party's leadership in tough times while Democrats are calling it a potential course correction after two years of GOP overreach.

"The public in a number of states in 2010 thought they were sending the message that with new leadership in the governor's office they'd get an accelerated recovery. Instead they got a hard right turn in ideology," said Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association in an interview.

O'Malley pointed to Ohio, where voters soundly rejected a ballot measure backed by Republican governor John Kasich to curtail public employee unions, and Florida, where Rick Scott's aggressive budget cuts and remote style helped sink his approval ratings to record lows last year.

"The governors we elected over the last couple of cycles have come into office, made tough gutsy decisions that haven't always been popular. But they've been honest enough to tell their voters we can't afford to do things the same way," said Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

Nowhere are the parties' contrasting visions on more vivid display than in Wisconsin, where Democrats submitted more than a million petitions in January to recall Walker, whose efforts to slash state worker benefits and end their collective bargaining rights drew fierce protests from union members and other activists.

The special election is expected to take place in June, with a likely primary in May to select a Democrat to challenge Walker. Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a favorite of labor leaders, is expected to run, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is also exploring a race.

Both parties agree that the Wisconsin recall is likely to be the closest governor's race of the year, and possibly the most expensive.

Democrats have modest hopes for a pickup in Indiana, where Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is stepping down after two terms. Rep. Mike Pence, a 6-term Republican from eastern Indiana, is running to replace Daniels, but John Gregg, a Democrat and former state House speaker, is mounting a strong effort.

Indiana is heavily Republican and Obama's popularity in the state has dropped considerably since winning the state in 2008, the first Democratic presidential hopeful in 40 years to do so. But the DGA's O'Malley said the strengthening auto industry, both nationally and in Indiana, could boost Gregg's chances.

Some states with elections this year are expecting to retain current governors, including Republicans Jack Dalrymple of North Dakota and Gary Herbert of Utah and Democrats Jack Markell of Delaware and Peter Shumlin of Vermont.

But from there, Republicans expect to be on offense.

_ In Washington state, where two-term Democrat Christine Gregoire is stepping down, Rob McKenna, the popular GOP attorney general, is running to replace her. Washington has not elected a Republican governor in 30 years, but party leaders say McKenna is a good fit for the state which Obama won handily in 2008 and will likely do so again this time. Longtime Rep. Jay Inslee is expected to be the Democratic contender.

_ In Montana, a conservative state where Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is stepping down after two terms, Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances despite a June primary that has drawn at least 7 hopefuls so far. Former Rep. Rick Hill is considered a favorite. Attorney General Steve Bullock leads the Democratic field.

_ In Missouri, where incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon is seeking re-election, Republicans hope the state's slow economic recovery and an expected tight presidential and senate contest could help their chances of recapturing the seat. Dave Spence, a wealthy suburban St. Louis businessman, is among the candidates running in the August GOP primary.

_ In West Virginia, a rematch is shaping up between incumbent Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican Bill Maloney, who came within 3 points of beating Tomblin in a 2011 special election despite almost no political experience and little name recognition. The RGA's McDonnell predicted Obama's presence at the top of the ticket this time was likely to drag down Tomblin. Obama lost the state to Republican John McCain in 2008 by 13 points.

_ In North Carolina, where incumbent Democrat Bev Perdue is stepping down after a single rocky term, Republicans are enthusiastic about Pat McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor who came within a few points of beating Perdue in 2008. Former Rep Bob Etheridge and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton are among the Democrats expected to compete in the May primary.

_ In New Hampshire, where Democrat John Lynch is retiring, Republican conservative activists Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith are vying for the Republican nomination while former state Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan is a favorite in the Democratic primary. New Hampshire went heavily Republican in 2010 after a gradual Democratic shift in the prior decade. It's considered a swing state in this year's presidential contest and could even lean Republican if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee. Obama won the state handily in 2008.

Republicans also have a significant financial advantage in the 2012 contest. The RGA raised $44 million in 2011 and had nearly $27 million cash on hand in the group's most recent filing, while the Democrats raised $20 million and had about $12 million on hand.

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