GOP's Jesse Kelly won't make a third bid for Giffords' seat

The race for Congress in the district formerly represented by Gabrielle Giffords will look far different this fall than it did just a few short weeks ago, when one of her top aides and a former rival battled for the right to serve out the remaining six months of her term.

On Thursday, two days after losing Tuesday's special election to Giffords aide Ron Barber, Republican Jesse Kelly announced that he will drop his third bid for Congress.

His decision was not unexpected: Despite wide name recognition and heavy financial support from the Republican National Congressional Committee, Kelly lost the election by a disappointing 7 points.

It was his second loss in the district in less than two years. In 2010, he came within about 4,000 votes of defeating Giffords, who resigned in January to focus on recovering from a gunshot wound suffered in a 2011 assassination attempt.

Still, it changes the dynamic in the campaign for the two-year term in the southern Arizona district.

Kelly's departure sets up retired Air Force pilot Martha McSally, a Republican rising star, for a strong shot at the seat. She turned heads earlier this year when she entered the special-election primary as a virtual unknown and came in second.

Unlike Kelly -- a strident "tea party" Republican with strong positions on Medicare and Social Security that Barber was able to attack in campaign messages -- McSally touts herself as a Republican who can appeal to independents.

Phoenix Republican strategist Bert Coleman said there are high hopes for her candidacy.

"It's a fresh face, some new ideas, without a heated primary heading into November. They'll have plenty of time to raise money, get their message out, and it's not such a rush," said Coleman, of Coleman Dahm & Associates. "I suspect he (Jesse Kelly) had donors telling him they weren't, for the fourth time, going to donate to his campaign."

Kelly, a 30-year-old construction-project manager and Marine veteran, said the results of the 8th Congressional District election led him to withdraw and "seek other opportunities."

Barber, 66, won by about 13,000 votes in the swing district, despite Republicans having a 26,000-voter registration edge. He will be sworn in early next week and serve six months.

"I would like to thank our Lord and savior Jesus Christ, my wife, Aubrey, and our supporters for their unwavering commitment to the values that make America great," Kelly said in a written statement. "I will forever be thankful to our generous supporters and volunteers."

Barber campaign officials did not respond to requests for comment.

If Kelly had continued, he likely would have faced an uphill battle in the newly drawn 2nd Congressional District for the two-year term. As a result of once-a-decade redistricting, the district does not contain areas where Kelly drew some of his strongest support, such as Marana, Saddlebrooke and Oro Valley, and the Republican voter advantage is virtually erased.

The old 8th Congressional District was 36 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic, and 31 percent other.

The new 2nd Congressional District is much more balanced: 34 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican and 31 percent independent/other. An analysis from TheArizona Republic of voting results shows that if the current map boundaries for the 2nd District had been in place in 2010, Giffords would have beaten Kelly by 13,821 votes instead of by 4,156.

McSally, the first woman in the Air Force to fly in combat, created a buzz in political circles this year with her combination of fiery passion and measured rhetoric, though she struggled to answer some questions on domestic policy.

Pima County employee Mark Koskiniemi, her challenger in the upcoming GOP primary, is not considered a strong candidate. He failed to get on the ballot in the special election, has little name recognition and political experience and is not expected by political insiders to compete financially.

By contrast, Barber, who will have incumbent status and is expected to have strong backing from the Democratic Party as well as Giffords, will face tough competition in the Democratic primary from state Rep. Matt Heinz. Heinz is a two-term legislator and hospital physician who announced ambitions for the seat months ago and reaffirmed Thursday his commitment to run.

"This last term, this was Gabby's seat. ? She should have some significant say in who finishes out the two years that she earned," said Heinz, who dropped out of the special election in support of Barber. "But when it comes to the fall ? it's a new district, with different primary and general electorates. We are choosing someone to be an advocate for southern Arizona probably for a decade or more."

McSally spokesman Sam Stone said the Democratic matchup is welcome news.

"We're not going to be caught in a trench fight in the primary," Stone said. "Ron Barber and Matt Heinz are going to be fighting it out."

The primary is Aug. 28. The general election is Nov. 6.

He argued that McSally can win the district, despite the loss of its slight Republican edge, because she has a broader appeal than Kelly.

Even some Republicans said it was time for a fresh face. "I am pretty sure Republicans are going to want to consider a different candidate for this seat in November," Jason Whitman, policy chairman for the Young Republican National Federation, said on Twitter on election night. "(I) don't think Kelly was an optimal candidate."

But nonpartisan political handicappers give the edge to Democrats. The "Rothenberg Political Report" labels the race as "leaning" to Democrats, while the "Cook Political Report" calls the seat "likely Democratic."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Republicans' loss in southern Arizona "spells trouble" for them across the state.

In a memo after Barber's election, DCCC officials predicted the party will hold onto the 2nd District and pick up two additional seats in Arizona, the 1st District with Ann Kirkpatrick and the 9th District with a slate of three strong Democrats. Officials noted each is more friendly to Democrats than the seat Barber won.

Democratic political consultant Robbie Sherwood, Arizona director for Strategies 360, discounted the chances of both Heinz and McSally unseating Barber. "Ron Barber has absolutely proved himself. There's no question about his ability as a candidate," he said.

Barber will benefit from the campaign organization he has in place, Sherwood said, and volunteers and donors will rally around him.

Sherwood doubted, in light of Barber's win and the district's demographic changes, that the National Republican Congressional Committee would extend much help to McSally. "They invested very heavily in Jesse Kelly and came up empty. I don't see them pouring money into what looks to them like a rathole."

Republic reporter Matt Dempsey contributed to this article.

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

Posted

View the original article here

1st potential candidate for Giffords seat emerges (AP)

PHOENIX – Is Rep. Gabrielle Giffords running for re-election?

That's a question State Sen. Frank Antenori of Tucson wants to answer before the May 15 deadline for submitting nominating petitions. The first potential candidate to publicly declare an interest in running for the southern Arizona post, Antenori said Thursday he feels Democrats are exploiting a perception that she's running for re-election as a way to blunt attempts by the GOP to win the seat.

"You are not going to use this strategy for a political purpose and try to keep Republicans out of the race until May. Ain't gonna happen," Antenori said, explaining that such a late announcement by Giffords would leave GOP candidates flat-footed.

Giffords, who is in her third term in Congress but has spent the past eight months recovering from a gunshot wound she suffered during a meeting with voters, hasn't publicly said whether she'll seek re-election. She also has been mentioned as a potential candidate for a U.S. Senate seat next year.

Arizona Democratic Party spokeswoman Jennifer Johnson said the decision on whether Giffords will run is for the congresswoman and her family to make. "Her recovery isn't based on (Antenori's) political ambitions," Johnson said.

Speculation on Giffords' future has buzzed since her surprise return to Congress earlier this month to cast her first vote since the Jan. 8 shooting in Tucson that wounded 12 others and killed six people, including one of her aides. Her return to vote on the debt ceiling deal was celebrated as proof she could possibly return full-time to politics.

Giffords campaign chairman Michael McNulty didn't immediately return calls placed Thursday.

Some Republicans have privately expressed reluctance in speaking publicly about the future of the seat because of sensitivities of commenting on her career as she was recovering.

Antenori, who formed an exploratory committee for a potential congressional run, said three weeks ago he thought Giffords was going to run, but now is left to wonder after a loyal Giffords aide took another job and, he charges, the Democratic Party is testing the waters for other possible candidates for the post.

"If she is capable and has the physical ability to represent the district, I think she would be a formidable — almost unbeatable — foe," Antenori said. He's the only candidate so far who has said publicly he's even considering a run — but he also says he will probably cancel those plans if Giffords decides to make another bid for her seat.

Johnson said the party isn't shopping around possible candidates for the post. "Congresswoman Giffords is our incumbent," Johnson said. "If she decides not to run, then that's the only appropriate time for us to be discussing other Democratic candidates."

Antenori said he plans to announce whether he's running in January or February after the state finishes drawing new boundaries for the congressional district. He believes Giffords ought to make her announcement within the first two months of 2012, too.

Antenori, who served in the Army in Afghanistan and Iraq before retiring from the military in 2004, lost a 2006 run for the congressional post, finishing second to last in a primary field of five Republicans. He went on to win a 2008 state House race and crushed his Democratic opponent in a 2010 race for the state Senate.

If Giffords decides to run again, she will have plenty of goodwill and money at her disposal. Democratic colleagues have held several fundraisers on her behalf in recent months and many are also donating to her campaign. As of June 30, they had helped her campaign generate more than $639,000 in donations.

According to the latest quarterly report filed with the Federal Election Commission, Giffords' campaign has nearly $788,000 in the bank.

Bruce Merrill, a longtime pollster in Arizona and senior research fellow at Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy, said Antenori is trying to put his name out to voters in case Giffords decides against running for re-election. "People should, rightfully, try to position themselves," Merrill said.

But Merrill, who believes the Democrat is unbeatable if she seeks re-election, also speculated that Giffords probably wants as much time as possible to assess her health and whether she wants to run again.

"There is no reason, in my opinion, for her to announce until May," Merrill said.

___(equals)

Associated Press writer Kevin Freking in Washington contributed to this report.

View the original article here